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In the last round of the FIFA World Cup group stage, games for which the outcome does not affect the selection of the qualified teams are played with little enthusiasm. Furthermore, a team that has already qualified may take into account…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-04 Mario Chater , Luc Arrondel , Jean-Pascal Gayant , Jean-François Laslier

Tanking, the act of deliberately dropping points or losing a game in order to gain some other advantage, is usually seen as being against the spirit of sports. It can be even more serious if playing a draw is a (weakly) dominant strategy…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-26 László Csató

The usual FIFA World Cup-TM group stage format is eight groups of four teams for a total of 32 teams. The top two teams from each group advance to the next round, resulting in a 16-team knockout stage. The next edition of the World Cup will…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-08 Jose A. Troyano

For every sports tournament, it is an important requirement to provide contestants with the appropriate incentives to perform. However, incentive compatibility is usually considered an all or nothing (binary) concept in the academic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-05-26 László Csató

The paper discusses the strategy-proofness of sports tournaments with multiple group stages, where the results of matches already played in the previous round against teams in the same group are carried over. These tournaments, widely used…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-24 László Csató

The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-05-20 László Csató

If the final position of a team is already secured independently of the outcomes of the remaining games in a round-robin tournament, it might play with little enthusiasm. This is detrimental to attendance and can inspire collusion and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-03 László Csató

This paper aims to explore the impact of tournament design on the incentives of the contestants. We develop a simulation framework to quantify the potential gain and loss from attacking based on changes in the probability of reaching the…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-17 László Csató

According to recent empirical studies, the group draw of major sports tournaments can imply a high level of uncertainty, and some lucky teams enjoy an unfair advantage over the other teams. We propose a novel technique to quantify this draw…

A match played in a sports tournament can be called stakeless if at least one team is indifferent to its outcome because it already has qualified or has been eliminated. Such a game threatens fairness since teams may not exert full effort…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-02 László Csató , András Gyimesi

Several sports tournaments contain a round-robin group stage where the teams are assigned to groups subject to some constraints. Hence, the organisers usually use a computer-assisted random draw to avoid any dead end, a situation when the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-02 László Csató

In a round-robin tournament, a team may lack the incentive to win if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. This paper introduces a classification scheme to determine these weakly (where one team is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-26 László Csató , Roland Molontay , József Pintér

Classification of matches played in the last rounds of sports competitions is a well-established tool for evaluating tournament designs. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches are available for this purpose. Our paper offers the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-26 László Csató , András Gyimesi

Existing match classification models in the tournament design literature have two major limitations: a contestant is considered indifferent only if uncertain future results do never affect its prize, and competitive matches are not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-29 László Csató , András Gyimesi

Tournament organisers supposedly design rules such that a team cannot be strictly better off by exerting a lower effort. However, the European qualification tournaments for recent FIFA soccer World Cups are known to violate this…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-28 László Csató

The group stage of a sports tournament is often made more appealing by introducing additional constraints in the group draw that promote an attractive and balanced group composition. For example, the number of intra-regional group matches…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-25 László Csató , Martin Becker , Karel Devriesere , Dries Goossens

Starting in the 2024/25 season, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) has fundamentally changed the format of its club competitions: the group stage has been replaced by a league phase played by 36 teams in an incomplete round…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-30 László Csató , Karel Devriesere , Dries Goossens , András Gyimesi , Roel Lambers , Frits Spieksma

Playing in the FIFA World Cup finals is an ambition shared by several nations. Since, besides luck and skill, the probability of qualification depends on the design of the qualifiers, the study of these competitions forms an integral part…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-11-08 László Csató

Tournaments are a widely used mechanism to rank alternatives in a noisy environment. This paper investigates a fundamental issue of economics in tournament design: what is the best usage of limited resources, that is, how should the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-24 Balázs R. Sziklai , Péter Biró , László Csató

The draw for the 2022 FIFA World Cup has been organised before the identity of three winners of the play-offs is revealed. Seeding has been based on the FIFA World Ranking released on 31 March 2022 but these three teams have been drawn from…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-22 László Csató
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