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A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-13 Shu Li , Peter Bühlmann

Learning meaningful causal representations from observations has emerged as a crucial task for facilitating machine learning applications and driving scientific discoveries in fields such as climate science, biology, and physics. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Jiaxu Ren , Yixin Wang , Biwei Huang

Causal decomposition depicts a cause-effect relationship that is not based on the concept of prediction, but based on the phase dependence of time series. It has been validated in both stochastic and deterministic systems and is now…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-18 Yi Zhang , Qin Yang , Lifu Zhang , Branko Celler , Steven Su , Peng Xu , Dezhong Yao

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Hossein Soleimani , Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Causal discovery is the subfield of causal inference concerned with estimating the structure of cause-and-effect relationships in a system of interrelated variables, as opposed to quantifying the strength or describing the form of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Rebecca F. Supple , Hannah Worthington , Ben Swallow

Epidemiological studies are often concerned with estimating causal effects of a sequence of treatment decisions on survival outcomes. In many settings, treatment decisions do not occur at fixed, pre-specified followup times. Rather, timing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Arman Oganisian

We study identifiability in continuous-time linear stationary stochastic differential equations with known causal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we relax the assumption of a known diffusion matrix, thereby respecting the model's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Gijs van Seeventer , Saber Salehkaleybar

Temporal data, representing chronological observations of complex systems, has always been a typical data structure that can be widely generated by many domains, such as industry, medicine and finance. Analyzing this type of data is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Chang Gong , Di Yao , Chuzhe Zhang , Wenbin Li , Jingping Bi

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Himanshu Joshi , Erick Scott , Fan Li

Time series data are found in many areas of healthcare such as medical time series, electronic health records (EHR), measurements of vitals, and wearable devices. Causal discovery, which involves estimating causal relationships from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Uzma Hasan , Md Osman Gani

Discovery of causal relations is fundamental for understanding the dynamics of complex systems. While causal interactions are well defined for acyclic systems that can be separated into causally effective subsystems, a mathematical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-10-11 Daniel Harnack , Erik Laminski , Klaus Richard Pawelzik

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-29 Imme Ebert-Uphoff , Yi Deng

The dynamic characteristics of multiphase industrial processes present significant challenges in the field of industrial big data modeling. Traditional soft sensing models frequently neglect the process dynamics and have difficulty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Yimeng He , Le Yao , Xinmin Zhang , Xiangyin Kong , Zhihuan Song

Many clinical questions involve estimating the effects of multiple treatments using observational data. When using longitudinal data, the interest is often in the effect of treatment strategies that involve sustaining treatment over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Emily Granger , Gwyneth Davies , Ruth H. Keogh

Causal ordering of key events in the cell cycle is essential for proper functioning of an organism. Yet, it remains a mystery how a specific temporal program of events is maintained despite ineluctable stochasticity in the biochemical…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2017-03-30 Farshid Jafarpour , Michael Vennettilli , Srividya Iyer-Biswas

Causal discovery from time-series data aims to capture both intra-slice (contemporaneous) and inter-slice (time-lagged) causality between variables within the temporal chain, which is crucial for various scientific disciplines. Compared to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Rujia Shen , Boran Wang , Chao Zhao , Yi Guan , Jingchi Jiang