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This article was motivated by the desire to improve Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for spatial survival models in which the locations of individuals in space are known. For a dataset comprising information on n individuals, standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-09 Benjamin M. Taylor

Effective anomaly detection in time series is pivotal for modern industrial applications and financial systems. Due to the scarcity of anomaly labels and the high cost of manual labeling, reconstruction-based unsupervised approaches have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Tiejun Wang , Rui Wang , Xudong Mou , Mengyuan Ma , Tianyu Wo , Renyu Yang , Xudong Liu

The bold diagrammatic Monte Carlo (BDMC) method performs an unbiased sampling of Feynman's diagrammatic series using skeleton diagrams. For lattice models the efficiency of BDMC can be dramatically improved by incorporating dynamic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-20 L. Pollet , N. V. Prokof'ev , B. V. Svistunov

In practice, machine learning methods commonly require anomaly detection (AD) to filter inputs or detect distributional shifts. Typically, this is implemented by running a separate AD model alongside the primary model. However, this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Luca Hinkamp , Simon Klüttermann , Emmanuel Müller

The deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical systems necessitates reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ). A practical and widespread strategy for UQ is repurposing stochastic regularizers as scalable approximate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Adam T. Müller , Tobias Rögelein , Nicolaj C. Stache

This paper introduces a new methodology for detecting anomalies in time series data, with a primary application to monitoring the health of (micro-) services and cloud resources. The main novelty in our approach is that instead of modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-31 Fadhel Ayed , Lorenzo Stella , Tim Januschowski , Jan Gasthaus

Estimating epistemic uncertainty of models used in low-latency applications and Out-Of-Distribution samples detection is a challenge due to the computationally demanding nature of uncertainty estimation techniques. Estimating model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Akshatha Kamath , Dwaraknath Gnaneshwar , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Emanuel Sommer , Jakob Robnik , Giorgi Nozadze , Uros Seljak , David Rügamer

Time series are ubiquitous and occur naturally in a variety of applications -- from data recorded by sensors in manufacturing processes, over financial data streams to climate data. Different tasks arise, such as regression, classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Sebastian Wette , Florian Heinrichs

Methods based on Deep Learning have recently been applied on astrophysical parameter recovery thanks to their ability to capture information from complex data. One of these methods is the approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) which…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-21 Héctor J. Hortúa , Luz Ángela García , Leonardo Castañeda C

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) underpins real-time monitoring in cloud services and web systems, allowing rapid identification of anomalies to prevent costly failures. Most TSAD methods driven by forecasting models tend to overfit by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Quan Zhou , Changhua Pei , Fei Sun , Jing Han , Zhengwei Gao , Dan Pei , Haiming Zhang , Gaogang Xie , Jianhui Li

Many problems in science and engineering require uncertainty quantification that accounts for observed data. For example, in computational neuroscience, Neural Population Models (NPMs) are mechanistic models that describe brain physiology…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-04 Philip Maybank , Patrick Peltzer , Uwe Naumann , Ingo Bojak

We propose an efficient way to output better calibrated uncertainty scores from neural networks. The Distilled Dropout Network (DDN) makes standard (non-Bayesian) neural networks more introspective by adding a new training loss which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-09-28 Corina Gurau , Alex Bewley , Ingmar Posner

Anomaly detection (AD) is a crucial machine learning task that aims to learn patterns from a set of normal training samples to identify abnormal samples in test data. Most existing AD studies assume that the training and test data are drawn…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Tri Cao , Jiawen Zhu , Guansong Pang

Detecting anomalous time series is key for scientific, medical and industrial tasks, but is challenging due to its inherent unsupervised nature. In recent years, progress has been made on this task by learning increasingly more complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Yedid Hoshen

Time series anomaly detection is an important process for system monitoring and model switching, among other applications in cyber-physical systems. In this document, we present a fast subspace method for time series anomaly detection, with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-23 Fredy Vides , Esteban Segura , Carlos Vargas-Agüero

Anomaly detection (AD) plays a crucial role in time series applications, primarily because time series data is employed across real-world scenarios. Detecting anomalies poses significant challenges since anomalies take diverse forms making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Jihan Ghanim , Mariette Awad

Bayesian model selection enables comparison and ranking of conceptual subsurface models described by spatial prior models, according to the support provided by available geophysical data. Deep generative neural networks can efficiently…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 M. Amaya , N. Linde , E. Laloy

In this paper we present a novel algorithm and efficient data structure for anomaly detection based on temporal data. Time-series data are represented by a sequence of symbolic time intervals, describing increasing and decreasing trends, in…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Roni Mateless , Michael Segal , Robert Moskovitch

Anomaly detection in SDN using data flow prediction is a difficult task. This problem is included in the category of time series and regression problems. Machine learning approaches are challenging in this field due to the manual selection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Sajjad Salem , Salman Asoudeh