Related papers: Causal Vector Autoregression Enhanced with Covaria…

Linear models have found widespread use in statistical investigations. For every linear model there exists a matrix representation for which the ReML (Restricted Maximum Likelihood) can be constructed from the elements of the corresponding…

In this paper, two novel algorithms to estimate a Gaussian Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from 1-bit measurements are introduced. They are based on the Yule-Walker scheme modified to account for quantisation. The scalar case has been…

An acyclic causal structure can be described with directed acyclic graph (DAG), where arrows indicate the possibility of direct causation. The task of learning this structure from data is known as "causal discovery." Diverse populations or…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…

VAR models are a type of multi-equation model that have been widely applied in econometrics. With the arrival of Big Data, huge amounts of data are being collected in numerous fields, making feasible the application of these kind of…

We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…

We assume that we have observational data generated from an unknown underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. A DAG is typically not identifiable from observational data, but it is possible to consistently estimate the equivalence…

Causal structure learning has long been the central task of inferring causal insights from data. Despite the abundance of real-world processes exhibiting higher-order mechanisms, however, an explicit treatment of interactions in causal…

Conditions are obtained for a Gaussian vector autoregressive time series of order $k$, VAR($k$), to have univariate margins that are autoregressive of order $k$ or lower-dimensional margins that are also VAR($k$). This can lead to…

We propose ordering-based approaches for learning the maximal ancestral graph (MAG) of a structural equation model (SEM) up to its Markov equivalence class (MEC) in the presence of unobserved variables. Existing ordering-based methods in…

We consider the problem of estimating the differences between two causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with a shared topological order given i.i.d. samples from each model. This is of interest for example in genomics, where changes in…

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Several recent unsupervised learning methods use probabilistic approaches to solve combinatorial optimization (CO) problems based on the assumption of statistically independent solution variables. We demonstrate that this assumption imposes…

We consider Bayesian tensor vector autoregressions (TVARs) in which the VAR coefficients are arranged as a three-dimensional array or tensor, and this coefficient tensor is parameterized using a low-rank CP decomposition. We develop a…

Learning vector autoregressive models from multivariate time series is conventionally approached through least squares or maximum likelihood estimation. These methods typically assume a fully connected model which provides no direct insight…

This paper studies a class of multivariate threshold autoregressive models, known as censored and kinked structural vector autoregressions (CKSVAR), which are notably able to accommodate series that are subject to occasionally binding…

Background: In epidemiology, causal inference and prediction modeling methodologies have been historically distinct. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are used to model a priori causal assumptions and inform variable selection strategies for…

This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows…

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…