English
Related papers

Related papers: Bayesian variance change point detection with cred…

200 papers

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-15 Matias Altamirano , François-Xavier Briol , Jeremias Knoblauch

This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-14 Flore Harlé , Florent Chatelain , Cédric Gouy-Pailler , Sophie Achard

We present a Bayesian method for multivariate changepoint detection that allows for simultaneous inference on the location of a changepoint and the coefficients of a logistic regression model for distinguishing pre-changepoint data from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Andrew M. Thomas , Michael Jauch , David S. Matteson

While there have been a lot of recent developments in the context of Bayesian model selection and variable selection for high dimensional linear models, there is not much work in the presence of change point in literature, unlike the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-26 Nilabja Guha , Jyotishka Datta

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Lorena Romero-Medrano , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

In segmentation problems, inference on change-point position and model selection are two difficult issues due to the discrete nature of change-points. In a Bayesian context, we derive exact, non-asymptotic, explicit and tractable formulae…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-31 Guillem Rigaill , Emilie Lebarbier , Stéphane Robin

A method for change point detection is proposed. We consider a univariate sequence of independent random variables with piecewise constant expectation and variance, apart from which the distribution may vary periodically. We aim to detect…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-23 Michael Messer

We propose the first Bayesian methods for detecting change points in high-dimensional mean and covariance structures. These methods are constructed using pairwise Bayes factors, leveraging modularization to identify significant changes in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-25 Jaehoon Kim , Kyoungjae Lee , Lizhen Lin

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

We propose a new, computationally efficient, sparsity adaptive changepoint estimator for detecting changes in unknown subsets of a high-dimensional data sequence. Assuming the data sequence is Gaussian, we prove that the new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Per August Jarval Moen , Ingrid Kristine Glad , Martin Tveten

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron

We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Aodong Li , Alex Boyd , Padhraic Smyth , Stephan Mandt

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

GNSS localization is an important part of today's autonomous systems, although it suffers from non-Gaussian errors caused by non-line-of-sight effects. Recent methods are able to mitigate these effects by including the corresponding…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-03-20 Tim Pfeifer , Peter Protzel

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

The problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) in an online fashion is of interest, due to new applications in biology, economics and social sciences. The offline version of the problem, where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 David T. Frazier , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi , David Gunawan
‹ Prev 1 2 3 10 Next ›