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In the context of inferring a Bayesian network structure (directed acyclic graph, DAG for short), we devise a non-reversible continuous time Markov chain, the ``Causal Zig-Zag sampler'', that targets a probability distribution over classes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-12 Moritz Schauer , Marcel Wienöbst

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework to model causal relationships among variables in multivariate settings; in addition, through the do-calculus theory, they allow for the identification and estimation of causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-31 Federico Castelletti , Alessandro Mascaro

Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-16 Bakht Zaman , Luis Miguel Lopez Ramos , Daniel Romero , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

Causal inference with observational data critically relies on untestable and extra-statistical assumptions that have (sometimes) testable implications. Well-known sets of assumptions that are sufficient to justify the causal interpretation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Pablo Geraldo Bastías

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data remains a significant challenge in machine learning. Most research in this area concentrates on learning a single DAG for the entire population. This paper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-21 Ryan Thompson , Edwin V. Bonilla , Robert Kohn

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the…

Causal diagrams are logic and graphical tools that depict assumptions about presumed causal relations. Such diagrams have proven effective in tackling a variety of problems in social sciences and epidemiology research yet remain foreign to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-29 M. Z. Naser

Causal modelling frameworks link observable correlations to causal explanations, which is a crucial aspect of science. These models represent causal relationships through directed graphs, with vertices and edges denoting systems and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-02-10 Carla Ferradini , Victor Gitton , V. Vilasini

The increasing availability of interventional data offers new opportunities for causal discovery, with gene perturbation studies providing a prominent example. Such data are typically count-valued and subject to substantial measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Yijiao Zhang , Hongzhe Li

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly capable of orchestrating complex tasks in low-code environments. However, these agents often exhibit hallucinations and logical inconsistencies because their inherent reasoning mechanisms…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Jiexi Xu , Jiaqi Liu , Lanruo Wang , Su Liu

Background: In epidemiology, causal inference and prediction modeling methodologies have been historically distinct. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are used to model a priori causal assumptions and inform variable selection strategies for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-03 Marco Piccininni , Stefan Konigorski , Jessica L Rohmann , Tobias Kurth

Traditional causal discovery methods often depend on strong, untestable assumptions, making them unreliable in real-world applications. In this context, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative for extracting…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Federico Baldo , Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

We propose NonStGM, a general nonparametric graphical modeling framework for studying dynamic associations among the components of a nonstationary multivariate time series. It builds on the framework of Gaussian Graphical Models (GGM) and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Sumanta Basu , Suhasini Subba Rao

Many questions in science center around the fundamental problem of understanding causal relationships. However, most constraint-based causal discovery algorithms, including the well-celebrated PC algorithm, often incur an exponential number…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Kirankumar Shiragur , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

This paper considers inference of causal structure in a class of graphical models called "conditional DAGs". These are directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with two kinds of variables, primary and secondary. The secondary variables are used…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-12 Chris J. Oates , Jim Q. Smith , Sach Mukherjee

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have advanced spatiotemporal forecasting by leveraging relational inductive biases among sensors (or any other measuring scheme) represented as nodes in a graph. However, current methods often rely on Recurrent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Aref Einizade , Fragkiskos D. Malliaros , Jhony H. Giraldo

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a central task in structure discovery and causal inference. Although the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Ryan Thompson , Edwin V. Bonilla , Robert Kohn

We consider the problem of recovering the true causal structure among a set of variables, generated by a linear acyclic structural equation model (SEM) with the error terms being independent, not necessarily Gaussian, and having equal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Anamitra Chaudhuri , Yang Ni , Anirban Bhattacharya

Causal discovery amounts to learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that encodes a causal model. This model selection problem can be challenging due to its large combinatorial search space, particularly when dealing with non-parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-21 Yurou Liang , Oleksandr Zadorozhnyi , Mathias Drton

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models, also called Bayesian networks, impose conditional independence constraints on a multivariate probability distribution, and are widely used in probabilistic reasoning, machine learning and causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-20 Robin J. Evans