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Bayesian optimization (BO) methods often rely on the assumption that the objective function is well-behaved, but in practice, this is seldom true for real-world objectives even if noise-free observations can be collected. Common approaches,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Erik Bodin , Markus Kaiser , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Zhenwen Dai , Neill D. F. Campbell , Carl Henrik Ek

Geophysical flows are typically composed of wave and mean motions with a wide range of overlapping temporal scales, making separation between the two types of motion in wave-resolving numerical simulations challenging. Lagrangian filtering…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-10-15 Lois E. Baker , Hossein A. Kafiabad , Cai Maitland-Davies , Jacques Vanneste

Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZ) [1] and its variants have been used widely to identify non-random patterns in biomedical signals obtained across distinct physiological states. Non-random signatures of the complexity measure can occur under…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-11-10 Radhakrishnan Nagarajan

This paper is concerned with sequential state filtering in the presence of nonlinearity, non-Gaussianity and model uncertainty. For this problem, the Bayesian model averaged particle filter (BMAPF) is perhaps one of the most efficient…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-28 Bin Liu

Nested nonparametric processes are vectors of random probability measures widely used in the Bayesian literature to model the dependence across distinct, though related, groups of observations. These processes allow a two-level clustering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Federico Camerlenghi , Riccardo Corradin , Andrea Ongaro

A Bayesian method of moments/instrumental variable (BMOM/IV) approach is developed and applied in the analysis of the important mean and multiple regression models. Given a single set of data, it is shown how to obtain posterior and…

bayes-an · Physics 2008-02-03 Arnold Zellner

In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

We propose a general purpose Bayesian inference algorithm for expensive likelihoods, replacing the stochastic term in the Langevin equation with a deterministic density gradient term. The particle density is evaluated from the current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Richard D. P. Grumitt , Biwei Dai , Uros Seljak

This paper proposes a physically consistent Gaussian Process (GP) enabling the identification of uncertain Lagrangian systems. The function space is tailored according to the energy components of the Lagrangian and the differential equation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Giulio Evangelisti , Sandra Hirche

We address the joint estimation of changes in the position and linear momentum of a quantum particle or, equivalently, changes in the complex field of a bosonic mode. Although these changes are generated by non-commuting operators, we show…

We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-09 Marko Järvenpää , Michael Gutmann , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Modern statistical applications often involve minimizing an objective function that may be nonsmooth and/or nonconvex. This paper focuses on a broad Bregman-surrogate algorithm framework including the local linear approximation, mirror…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-20 Yiyuan She , Zhifeng Wang , Jiuwu Jin

We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is low or degenerate. We focus on the case where the observation equation is a linear function of the state and the data involve additive noise.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-01 Abylay Zhumekenov , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

This thesis is mainly concerned with state-space approaches for solving deep (temporal) Gaussian process (DGP) regression problems. More specifically, we represent DGPs as hierarchically composed systems of stochastic differential equations…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Zheng Zhao

Gaussian mixture models are universal approximators in the sense that any smooth density can be approximated arbitrarily well with a Gaussian mixture model with enough components. Due to their broad expressive power, Gaussian mixture models…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-12 Haley Colgate Kottler , Julia Lindberg , Jose Israel Rodriguez

This paper proposes a new class of real-time optimization schemes to overcome system-model mismatch of uncertain processes. This work's novelty lies in integrating derivative-free optimization schemes and multi-fidelity Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Benoit Chachuat , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona

Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) aims to non-invasively reconstruct activation maps of the heart from temporal body surface potentials. While most existing approaches rely on inverse and optimization techniques that may yield…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Emma Lagracie , Luc de Montella

A 2D range-only tracking scenario is non-trivial due to two main reasons. First, when the states to be estimated are in Cartesian coordinates, the uncertainty region is multi-modal. The second reason is that the probability density function…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-09 Nikhil Sharma , Shovan Bhaumik , Ratnasingham Tharmarasa , Thia Kirubarajan

Particle filters (PFs) are recursive Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian tracking and prediction in state space models. This paper addresses continuous-discrete filtering problems, where the hidden state evolves as an It\^o stochastic…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-24 Utku Erdogan , Gabriel J. Lord , Joaquin Miguez

Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) is quantum sampling task in which one has to draw samples from the photon-number distribution of a large-dimensional nonclassical squeezed state of light. In an effort to make this task intractable for a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-05-25 G. S. Thekkadath , S. Sempere-Llagostera , B. A. Bell , R. B. Patel , M. S. Kim , I. A. Walmsley