Related papers: Margin-closed vector autoregressive time series mo…

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse…

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality,…

We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…

In this paper we consider multivariate time series obtained as solution to multidimensional nonlinear stochastic difference equations whose coefficients are allowed to be locally degenerate and to present discontinuities. We provide simple…

In the literature on nonlinear cointegration, a long-standing open problem relates to how a (nonlinear) vector autoregression, which provides a unified description of the short- and long-run dynamics of a vector of time series, can generate…

Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

This paper introduces a novel approach, the bivariate generalized autoregressive (BGAR) model, for modeling and forecasting bivariate time series data. The BGAR model generalizes the bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models by allowing…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a staple in the analysis of multivariate time series and are formulated in the time domain as difference equations, with an implied covariance structure. In many contexts, it is desirable to…

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…

In this paper we analyze the product of bi-dimensional VAR(1) model components. For the introduced time series we derive general formulas for the autocovariance function and study its properties for different cases of cross-dependence…

The main aim of this paper is to review recent advances in the multivariate autoregressive index model [MAI], originally proposed by Reinsel (1983), and their applications to economic and financial time series. MAI has recently gained…

Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger…

Stationary and ergodic time series can be constructed using an s-vine decomposition based on sets of bivariate copula functions. The extension of such processes to infinite copula sequences is considered and shown to yield a rich class of…

Analysis of multivariate time series is a common problem in areas like finance and economics. The classical tool for this purpose are vector autoregressive models. These however are limited to the modeling of linear and symmetric…

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand,…