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Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-16 Chelsea Sidrane , Dylan J Fitzpatrick , Andrew Annex , Diane O'Donoghue , Yarin Gal , Piotr Biliński

Accurate rainfall data are crucial for effective climate services, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture depends heavily on rain-fed systems. The sparse distribution of rain-gauge networks necessitates reliance on satellite…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-14 John Bagiliko , David Stern , Denis Ndanguza , Francis Feehi Torgbor

Statistical models are an essential tool to model, forecast and understand the hydrological processes in watersheds. In particular, the understanding of time lags associated with the delay between rainfall occurrence and subsequent changes…

In data-sparse regions, satellite and reanalysis rainfall estimates (SREs) are vital but limited by inherent biases. This study evaluates bias correction (BC) methods, including traditional statistical (LOCI, QM) and machine learning (SVR,…

Flooding is the most devastating phenomenon occurring globally, particularly in mountainous regions, risk dramatically increases due to complex terrains and extreme climate changes. These situations are damaging livelihoods, agriculture,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Haleema Bibi , Sadia Saleem , Zakia Jalil , Muhammad Nasir , Tahani Alsubait

Accurate short-term streamflow and flood forecasting are critical for mitigating river flood impacts, especially given the increasing climate variability. Machine learning-based streamflow forecasting relies on large streamflow datasets…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Xiyu Pan , Neda Mohammadi , John E. Taylor

Urban flooding triggered by intense rainfall is becoming increasingly frequent and widespread. While flood prediction and monitoring in high spatio-temporal resolution are desired, practical constraints in time, budget, and technology…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Zihang Ding , Amit Kumar , Imran Md. Azizul Islam , Mila Avellar Montezuma , Ruihang Zhang , Kun Zhang

We develop a flexible spline-based Bayesian hidden Markov model stochastic weather generator to statistically model daily precipitation over time by season at individual locations. The model naturally accounts for missing data (considered…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-19 Christopher J. Paciorek

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but…

Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast…

Streamflow is a dynamical process that integrates water movement in space and time within basin boundaries. The authors characterize the dynamics associated with streamflow time series data from about seventy-one U.S. Geological Survey…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-14 Ganesh R. Ghimire , Navid Jadidoleslam , Witold F. Krajewski , Anastasios A. Tsonis

The hydrometric prediction of water quantity is useful for a variety of applications, including water management, flood forecasting, and flood control. However, the task is difficult due to the dynamic nature and limited data of water…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Naghmeh Shafiee Roudbari , Charalambos Poullis , Zachary Patterson , Ursula Eicker

Accurate and timely prediction of heavy rainfall events is crucial for effective flood risk management and disaster preparedness. By monitoring, analysing, and evaluating rainfall data at a local level, it is not only possible to take…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Edwin Salcedo

Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved thanks to advances in data assimilation (DA) strategies incorporating various types of observations; many are derived from spatial Earth Observation. This paper focuses on…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-30 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Sophie Ricci , Andrea Piacentini , Ehouarn Simon , Raquel Rodriguez Suquet , Santiago Peña Luque

A fundamental challenge in estimations of daily streamflow time series at sites with incomplete records is how to effectively and efficiently select reference or donor gauges from an existing gauge network to infer the missing data. While…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-09 German A. Villalba , Xu Liang , Yao Liang

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Ren Ozeki , Hamada Rizk , Hirozumi Yamaguchi

A novel algorithm is introduced to improve estimations of daily streamflow time series at sites with incomplete records based on the concept of conditional independence in graphical models. The goal is to fill in gaps of historical data or…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-07 German A. Villalba , Xu Liang , Yao Liang

Relevant comprehension of flood hazards has emerged as a crucial necessity, especially as the severity and the occurrence of flood events intensify with climate changes. Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-18 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Anthéa Delmotte , Christophe Fatras , Peter Kettig , Andrea Piacentini , Sophie Ricci

To track rapid changes within our water sector, Global Water Models (GWMs) need to realistically represent hydrologic systems' response patterns - such as baseflow fraction - but are hindered by their limited ability to learn from data.…

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