Related papers: Using scaling-region distributions to select embed…
In the nonlinear prediction of scalar time series, the common practice is to reconstruct the state space using time-delay embedding and apply a local model on neighborhoods of the reconstructed space. The method of false nearest neighbors…
Permutation Entropy (PE) has been shown to be a useful tool for time series analysis due to its low computational cost and noise robustness. This has drawn for its successful application in many fields. Some of these include damage…
Delay-coordinate reconstruction is a proven modeling strategy for building effective forecasts of nonlinear time series. The first step in this process is the estimation of good values for two parameters, the time delay and the embedding…
We suggest an algorithm for determining the proper delay time and the minimum embedding dimension for Takens' delay-time embedding procedure. This method resorts to the rate of change of the spatial distribution of points on a reconstructed…
Reconstruction of a dynamical system from a time series requires the selection of two parameters, the embedding dimension $d_e$ and the embedding lag $\tau$. Many competing criteria to select these parameters exist, and all are heuristic.…
A new and accurate method to determine the time delay and embedding dimension for state space reconstruction of a high dimensional system from a scalar time series using time delay embedding is presented. The time delay is obtained to…
In the analysis of complex, nonlinear time series, scientists in a variety of disciplines have relied on a time delayed embedding of their data, i.e. attractor reconstruction. The process has focused primarily on heuristic and empirical…
We propose a curvature-based approach for choosing good values for the time-delay parameter $\tau$ in delay reconstructions. The idea is based on the effects of the delay on the geometry of the reconstructions. If the delay is chosen too…
The most common state space reconstruction method in the analysis of chaotic time series is the Method of Delays (MOD). Many techniques have been suggested to estimate the parameters of MOD, i.e. the time delay $\tau$ and the embedding…
We propose employing a high-dimensional generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, regularized for dimension reduction and subsequently debiased to correct for shrinkage bias (referred to as a debiased-regularized estimator), for…
We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the…
Post-selection inference consists in providing statistical guarantees, based on a data set, that are robust to a prior model selection step on the same data set. In this paper, we address an instance of the post-selection-inference problem,…
We develop joint confidence regions for linear regression coefficients when the regressors and errors are jointly stationary and ergodic with unspecified serial dependence. The method applies random smoothing, using an independent auxiliary…
Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the…
We consider a class of systems with time-varying parameters, which are written as linear regressions with bounded disturbances. The task is to estimate such parameters under the condition that the regressor is finitely exciting (FE).…
We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM…
Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…
Two major bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. Yet incomplete or…
Delay-coordinate embedding is a powerful, time-tested mathematical framework for reconstructing the dynamics of a system from a series of scalar observations. Most of the associated theory and heuristics are overly stringent for real-world…
This paper introduces an algorithm to select demonstration examples for in-context learning of a query set. Given a set of $n$ examples, how can we quickly select $k$ out of $n$ to best serve as the conditioning for downstream inference?…