Related papers: Understanding and eliminating spurious modes in va…
The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…
Probabilistic programming is an approach to reasoning under uncertainty by encoding inference problems as programs. In order to solve these inference problems, probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) employ different inference…
Sampling complex free energy surfaces is one of the main challenges of modern atomistic simulation methods. The presence of kinetic bottlenecks in such surfaces often renders a direct approach useless. A popular strategy is to identify a…
This paper examines the use of Monte Carlo simulations to understand statistical concepts in A/B testing and Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). We discuss the applicability of simulations in understanding false positive rates and estimate…
In the following paper we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of…
The ability of widely used sampling methods, such as molecular dynamics or Monte Carlo, to explore complex free energy landscapes is severely hampered by the presence of kinetic bottlenecks. A large number of solutions have been proposed to…
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…
In this paper, we address technical difficulties that arise when applying Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to hierarchical models designed to perform clustering in the space of latent parameters of subject-wise generative models.…
Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is a recently proposed variation of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation that achieves variance reduction by simulating the governing equations on a series of spatial (or temporal) grids with increasing resolution.…
Constrained machine learning enables fairness-aware training, physics-informed neural networks, and integration of symbolic domain knowledge into statistical models. Despite its practical importance, no general method exists for the…
Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used for manufacturing decisions, yet are typically applied via deterministic thresholding of finite-sample estimates, ignoring uncertainty and leading to unstable outcomes near the…
Many enhanced sampling techniques rely on the identification of a number of collective variables that describe all the slow modes of the system. By constructing a bias potential in this reduced space one is then able to sample efficiently…
Strongly interacting quantum systems described by non-stoquastic Hamiltonians exhibit rich low-temperature physics. Yet, their study poses a formidable challenge, even for state-of-the-art numerical techniques. Here, we investigate…
Forward modeling approaches in cosmology have made it possible to reconstruct the initial conditions at the beginning of the Universe from the observed survey data. However the high dimensionality of the parameter space still poses a…
When combined with highly expressive ansatz functions such as neural quantum states, variational Monte Carlo (VMC) constitutes a versatile numerical approach to tackle the quantum many-body problem in and out of equilibrium. However, its…
We introduce a variational algorithm to estimate the likelihood of a rare event within a nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation through the evaluation of an optimal control force. Optimization of a control force within a chosen basis…
We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no-arbitrage restrictions by…
We discuss a projector Monte Carlo method for quantum spin models formulated in the valence bond basis, using the S=1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet as an example. Its singlet ground state can be projected out of an arbitrary basis state as…
Many high dimensional optimization problems can be reformulated into a problem of finding theoptimal state path under an equivalent state space model setting. In this article, we present a general emulation strategy for developing a state…
Classifiers based on neural networks (NN) often lack a measure of uncertainty in the predicted class. We propose a method to estimate the probability mass function (PMF) of the different classes, as well as the covariance of the estimated…