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Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods. However, posterior approximations obtained with SBI are often…

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification: simulators are only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues , Michael Arbel , Florence Forbes

We present FlowSN, a statistical framework using simulation-based inference (SBI) with normalising flows to account for selection effects in observational astronomy. Failure to account for selection effects can lead to biased inference on…

Normalizing flows (NFs) have become a prominent method for deep generative models that allow for an analytic probability density estimation and efficient synthesis. However, a flow-based network is considered to be inefficient in parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Sang-gil Lee , Sungwon Kim , Sungroh Yoon

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Matthias Kirchler , Christoph Lippert , Marius Kloft

Model parameter inference is a universal problem across science. This challenge is particularly pronounced in developmental biology, where faithful mechanistic descriptions require spatial-stochastic models with numerous parameters, yet…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-07-16 Michael A. Ramirez-Sierra , Thomas R. Sokolowski

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Brian L Trippe , Richard E Turner

Modeling real-world distributions can often be challenging due to sample data that are subjected to perturbations, e.g., instrumentation errors, or added random noise. Since flow models are typically nonlinear algorithms, they amplify these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Sameera Ramasinghe , Kasun Fernando , Salman Khan , Nick Barnes

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T Radev

Many recent works in simulation-based inference (SBI) rely on deep generative models to approximate complex, high-dimensional posterior distributions. However, evaluating whether or not these approximations can be trusted remains a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Jonas Beck , Michael Deistler , Yves Bernaerts , Jakob Macke , Philipp Berens

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-15 Danilo Jimenez Rezende , Shakir Mohamed

The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Dan Leonte , Raphaël Huser , Almut E. D. Veraart

The development of safety validation methods is essential for the safe deployment and operation of Automated Driving Systems (ADSs). One of the goals of safety validation is to prospectively evaluate the risk of an ADS dealing with…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Erwin de Gelder , Maren Buermann , Olaf Op den Camp

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

A central challenge in many areas of science and engineering is to identify model parameters that are consistent with prior knowledge and empirical data. Bayesian inference offers a principled framework for this task, but can be…

Inverse problems of partial differential equations are ubiquitous across various scientific disciplines and can be formulated as statistical inference problems using Bayes' theorem. To address large-scale problems, it is crucial to develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Yang Zhao , Haoyu Lu , Junxiong Jia , Tao Zhou

Single-molecule force spectroscopy (smFS) is a powerful approach to studying molecular self-organization. However, the coupling of the molecule with the ever-present experimental device introduces artifacts, that complicates the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Lars Dingeldein , Pilar Cossio , Roberto Covino