Related papers: Estimating Dynamic Spillover Effects along Multipl…

A minimal stochastic dynamical model of the interbank network is introduced, with linear interactions mediated by an integral of recent variations. Defining stress as the variance over the banks' states, the interaction correction to the…

In the context of epidemic spreading, many intricate dynamical patterns can emerge due to the cooperation of different types of pathogens or the interaction between the disease spread and other failure propagation mechanism. To unravel such…

Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…

We present a statistical framework for generating predicted dynamic networks based on the observed evolution of social relationships in a population. The framework includes a novel and flexible procedure to sample dynamic networks given a…

Applied work under interference typically models outcomes as functions of own treatment and a low-dimensional exposure mapping of others' treatments, even when that mapping may be misspecified. We ask what policy object such exposure-based…

Financial institutions obtain enormous amounts of data about user transactions and money transfers, which can be considered as a large graph dynamically changing in time. In this work, we focus on the task of predicting new interactions in…

We test the hypothesis that interconnections across financial institutions can be explained by a diversification motive. This idea stems from the empirical evidence of the existence of long-term exposures that cannot be explained by a…

Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of…

This paper provides the first empirical network analysis of the Argentine interbank money market. Its main topological features are examined applying graph theory, focusing on the unsecured overnight loans settled from 2003 to 2017. The…

Merging the two cultures of deep and statistical learning provides insights into structured high-dimensional data. Traditional statistical modeling is still a dominant strategy for structured tabular data. Deep learning can be viewed…

Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…

We characterise the evolution of a dynamical system by combining two well-known complex systems' tools, namely, symbolic ordinal analysis and networks. From the ordinal representation of a time-series we construct a network in which every…

Estimation and inference procedures for synthetic control methods often do not allow for the existence of spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for synthetic control…

We consider two-opinion voter models on dense dynamic random graphs. Our goal is to understand and describe the occurrence of consensus versus polarisation over long periods of time. The former means that all vertices have the same opinion,…

In various economic environments, people observe other people with whom they strategically interact. We can model such information-sharing relations as an information network, and the strategic interactions as a game on the network. When…

We present a new approach to estimating the interdependence of industries in an economy by applying data science solutions. By exploiting interfirm buyer--seller network data, we show that the problem of estimating the interdependence of…

The network paradigm is used to gain insight into the structural root causes of the resilience of consensus in dynamic collective behaviors, and to analyze the controllability of the swarm dynamics. Here we devise the dynamic signaling…

Since governments give stimulus to firms and expect the spillover effect by fiscal policies, it is important to know the effectiveness that they can control the economy. To clarify the controllability of the economy, we investigate a firm…

To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables -- constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors -- are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness,…

This paper analyzes the bank lending channel and the heterogeneous effects on the euro area, providing evidence that the channel is indeed working. The analysis of the transmission mechanism is based on structural impulse responses to an…