Related papers: Identifying the Causes of Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb…
Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are storm clouds generated by extreme wildfires. PyroCbs are associated with unpredictable, and therefore dangerous, wildfire spread. They can also inject smoke particles and trace gases into the upper…
Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) firestorms -- wildfire-generated thunderstorms -- can trigger rapid fire spread. However, the multi-physics nature of pyroCb has made their core mechanisms inaccessible to direct observation and previous simulation…
Experiments remain the gold standard to establish an understanding of fire-related phenomena. A primary goal in designing tests is to uncover the data generating process (i.e., the how and why the observations we see come to be); or simply…
Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…
We consider the task of identifying the causal parents of a target variable among a set of candidates from observational data. Our main assumption is that the candidate variables are observed in different environments which may, under…
Gas turbine superalloys experience hot corrosion, driven by factors including corrosive deposit flux, temperature, gas composition, and component material. The full mechanism still needs clarification and research often focuses on…
For a given causal question, it is important to efficiently decide which causal inference method to use for a given dataset. This is challenging because causal methods typically rely on complex and difficult-to-verify assumptions, and…
An important problem in many domains is to predict how a system will respond to interventions. This task is inherently linked to estimating the system's underlying causal structure. To this end, Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) (Peters et…
Energy demand prediction is critical for grid operators, industrial energy consumers, and service providers. Energy demand is influenced by multiple factors, including weather conditions (e.g. temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar…
Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a fundamental yet challenging task. Invariant causal prediction (ICP, Peters et al., 2016) is a method for causal feature selection which requires data from heterogeneous settings…
Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method…
Cirrus clouds are key modulators of Earth's climate. Their dependencies on meteorological and aerosol conditions are among the largest uncertainties in global climate models. This work uses three years of satellite and reanalysis data to…
Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk…
We propose a method to classify the causal relationship between two discrete variables given only the joint distribution of the variables, acknowledging that the method is subject to an inherent baseline error. We assume that the causal…
One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…
Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental task in artificial intelligence, with far-reaching implications for decision-making, predictions, and interventions. Despite significant advances, existing methods can be broadly…
In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…
Stips, Macias, Coughlan, Garcia-Gorriz, and Liang (2016, Nature Scientific Reports) use information flows (Liang, 2008, 2014) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinges on…
Whether a variable is the cause of another, or simply associated with it, is often an important scientific question. Causal Inference is the name associated with the body of techniques for addressing that question in a statistical setting.…
Large wildfires are becoming more frequent at temperate latitudes. Often, fires generate massive convective columns that can carry solid particles (ash) into the stratosphere. Like their meteorological counterparts, pyrocumulonimbus…