Related papers: Parameter-Covariance Maximum Likelihood Estimation
This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…
A new likelihood based AR approximation is given for ARMA models. The usual algorithms for the computation of the likelihood of an ARMA model require $O(n)$ flops per function evaluation. Using our new approximation, an algorithm is…
This paper considers a convex optimization problem with cost and constraints that evolve over time. The function to be minimized is strongly convex and possibly non-differentiable, and variables are coupled through linear constraints. In…
One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…
This paper considers both the least squares and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for the recently proposed scalable ARMA model, a parametric infinite-order vector AR model, and their asymptotic normality is also established. It makes…
We establish a connection between trend filtering and system identification which results in a family of new identification methods for linear, time-varying (LTV) dynamical models based on convex optimization. We demonstrate how the design…
For constrained linear systems with bounded disturbances and parametric uncertainty, we propose a robust adaptive model predictive control strategy with online parameter estimation. Constraints enforcing persistently exciting closed loop…
The weakest pre-expectation calculus has been proved to be a mature theory to analyze quantitative properties of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs. We present an automatic method for proving quantitative linear properties on any…
We propose a formulation for nonlinear recurrent models that includes simple parametric models of recurrent neural networks as a special case. The proposed formulation leads to a natural estimator in the form of a convex program. We provide…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…
In this paper we propose an identification method for latent-variable graphical models associated to autoregressive (AR) Gaussian stationary processes. The identification procedure exploits the approximation of AR processes through…
Subspace methods like canonical variate analysis (CVA) are regression based methods for the estimation of linear dynamic state space models. They have been shown to deliver accurate (consistent and asymptotically equivalent to quasi maximum…
In this work, we offer a theoretical analysis of two modern optimization techniques for training large and complex models: (i) adaptive optimization algorithms, such as Adam, and (ii) the model exponential moving average (EMA).…
The EM algorithm is a generic tool that offers maximum likelihood solutions when datasets are incomplete with data values missing at random or completely at random. At least for its simplest form, the algorithm can be rewritten in terms of…
We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…
Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…
Convex regression is a promising area for bridging statistical estimation and deterministic convex optimization. New piecewise linear convex regression methods are fast and scalable, but can have instability when used to approximate…
We propose a convex optimization procedure for black-box identification of nonlinear state-space models for systems that exhibit stable limit cycles (unforced periodic solutions). It extends the "robust identification error" framework in…
Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small…
We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of…