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This paper investigates the temporal patterns of activity in the cryptocurrency market with a focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and WINkLink from January 2020 to December 2022. Market activity measures - logarithmic returns, volume, and…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-22 Marcin Wątorek , Maria Skupień , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Rainer Dahlhaus , Sophon Tunyavetchakit

The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a fresh challenge…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Ramit Sawhney , Shivam Agarwal , Vivek Mittal , Paolo Rosso , Vikram Nanda , Sudheer Chava

Forecasting speculative stock prices is essential for effective investment risk management that drives the need for the development of innovative algorithms. However, the speculative nature, volatility, and complex sequential dependencies…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-23 Riaz Ud Din , Salman Ahmed , Saddam Hussain Khan

Technical traders have long relied on visual analysis of candlestick charts to identify market patterns and predict price movements. While deep learning has achieved remarkable success in image classification, its application to financial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Dustin M. Haggett

We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-31 Nicoló Musmeci , Tomaso Aste , Tiziana Di Matteo

Over the past decade, the blockchain technology and its Bitcoin cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings in daily and long-term valuations. In this paper, we propose a partial…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-26 Yufang Wang , Haiyan Wang

At present, cryptocurrencies have become a global phenomenon in financial sectors as it is one of the most traded financial instruments worldwide. Cryptocurrency is not only one of the most complicated and abstruse fields among financial…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-20 Reaz Chowdhury , M. Arifur Rahman , M. Sohel Rahman , M. R. C. Mahdy

Trading volume movement prediction is the key in a variety of financial applications. Despite its importance, there is few research on this topic because of its requirement for comprehensive understanding of information from different…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-26 Liang Zhao , Wei Li , Ruihan Bao , Keiko Harimoto , YunfangWu , Xu Sun

Understanding the combined influences of meteorological and hydrological factors on water level and flood events is essential, particularly in today's changing climate environments. Transformer, as one kind of the cutting-edge deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Mingyu Liu , Nana Bao , Xingting Yan , Chenyang Li , Kai Peng

Predicting volatility is important for asset predicting, option pricing and hedging strategies because it cannot be directly observed in the financial market. The Black-Scholes option pricing model is one of the most widely used models by…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-01 Soohan Kim , Seok-Bae Yun , Hyeong-Ohk Bae , Muhyun Lee , Youngjoon Hong

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-11 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Organizing and managing cryptocurrency portfolios and decision-making on transactions is crucial in this market. Optimal selection of assets is one of the main challenges that requires accurate prediction of the price of cryptocurrencies.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Arash Peik , Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki , Amin Milani Fard , Mehdi Agha Sarram

This paper investigates systemic risk transmission across stablecoin markets using Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR). Analyzing eight major stablecoins with day data coverage from 2021 to 2025, supplemented by minute-level event studies…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-24 Wenbin Wu , Can Liu

Extreme volatility, nonlinear dependencies, and systemic fragility are characteristics of cryptocurrency markets. The assumptions of normality and centralized control in traditional financial risk models frequently cause them to miss these…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-15 Kiarash Firouzi

In this study, we perform some analysis for the probability distributions in the space of frequency and time variables. However, in the domain of high frequencies, it behaves in such a way as the highly non-linear dynamics. The wavelet…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Tatsuru Kikuchi

Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Xiuqin Xu , Ying Chen

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-27 Li Guo , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Yubo Tao

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-18 Li Guo , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Yubo Tao

We analyse high-frequency realised volatility dynamics and spillovers in the bitcoin market, focusing on two pairs: bitcoin against the US dollar (the main fiat-crypto pair) and trading bitcoin against tether (the main crypto-crypto pair).…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-09 Carol Alexander , Daniel Heck , Andreas Kaeck