Related papers: The distribution of aggregate storm risk in a chan…

The collective risk model differentiates usually between claims frequencies (and their distribution) and claim sizes (and their distribution). For the claims frequencies typically classical discrete distributions are considered, such as…

This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…

Rainfall exhibits extreme variability at many space and time scales and calls for a statistical description. Based on an analysis of radar measurements of precipitation over the tropical oceans, we introduce a new probability law for the…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…

The distribution of the sum of dependent risks is a crucial aspect in actuarial sciences, risk management and in many branches of applied probability. In this paper, we obtain analytic expressions for the probability density function (pdf)…

We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks…

This paper delves into the impact of natural disasters on affected populations and underscores the imperative of reducing disaster-related fatalities through proactive strategies. On average, approximately 45,000 individuals succumb…

We give a new predictive mathematical model for macroeconomics, which deals specifically with asset prices and earnings fluctuations, in the presence of a dynamic economy involving mergers, acquisitions, and hostile takeovers. Consider a…

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…

One of the first beings affected by changes in the climate are trees, one of our most vital resources. In this study tree species interaction and the response to climate in different ecological environments is observed by applying a joint…

A meticulous assessment of the risk of impacts associated with extreme wind events is of great necessity for populations, civil authorities as well as the insurance industry. Using the concept of spatial risk measure and related set of…

In this paper, we study the effects of correlated random phases in the intensity of a superposition of $N$ wave-fields. Our results suggest that regardless of whether the phase distribution is continuous or discrete if the phases are random…

In environmental sciences, it is often of interest to assess whether the dependence between extreme measurements has changed during the observation period. The aim of this work is to propose a statistical test that is particularly sensitive…