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We prove an ergodic theorem for Markov chains indexed by the Ulam-Harris-Neveu tree over large subsets with arbitrary shape under two assumptions: with high probability, two vertices in the large subset are far from each other and have…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Julien Weibel

The partial sum of the states of a Markov chain or more generally a Markov source is asymptotically normally distributed under suitable conditions. One of these conditions is that the variance is unbounded. A simple combinatorial…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Sara Kropf

We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-01 Yun Yang , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-15 Christophe Andrieu , Anthony Lee , Matti Vihola

Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Jiezhong Wu , Reiichiro Kawai

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Jacob Steinhardt , Percy Liang

We investigate multivariate regular variation in the context of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general vector spaces and in random coefficient linear models. In the first part, we show that the regular variation of the stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-23 Piotr Dyszewski , Tamara Mika

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is post-processed and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 Leah F. South , Marina Riabiz , Onur Teymur , Chris. J. Oates

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most useful approaches to scientific computing because of its flexible construction, ease of use and generality. Indeed, MCMC is indispensable for performing Bayesian analysis. Two critical…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-18 Vivekananda Roy

Convergence diagnosis for Markov chain Monte Carlo is a matter of fundamental importance in computational statistics: it determines the resources allocated to a particular sampling problem and influences the practitioner's view of the…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-14 Buu Phan , Gergely Flamich , Ashish Khisti , Shahab Asoodeh

We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Balazs Gerencser , Miklos Rasonyi

There has been substantial interest in developing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. However existing algorithms can only be used if the target distribution of interest is differentiable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-12 Augustin Chevallier , Sam Power , Andi Q. Wang , Paul Fearnhead

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-10 Dootika Vats , Nathan Robertson , James M Flegal , Galin L Jones

Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zach Dietz , Sunder Sethuraman

This review paper, written for the second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provides an introduction to the study of convergence analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), aimed at researchers new to the field. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Qian Qin

The aim of this work is to give an introduction to the theoretical background and computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Most of the mathematical results related to the convergence are not found in most of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-16 Izhar Asael Alonzo Matamoros

The random numbers driving Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are usually modeled as independent U(0,1) random variables. Tribble [Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms using completely uniformly distributed driving sequences (2007)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-11 S. Chen , J. Dick , A. B. Owen

This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-16 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly

In this work we present a non-reversible, tuning- and rejection-free Markov chain Monte Carlo which naturally fits in the framework of hit-and-run. The sampler only requires access to the gradient of the log-density function, hence the…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-31 Amir Sepehri , Jelena Markovic

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful tool for sampling equilibrium configurations in complex systems. One problem these methods often face is slow convergence over large energy barriers. In this work, we propose a novel method…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-05-29 Luigi Sbailò , Manuel Dibak , Frank Noé