Related papers: Beyond Fisher Forecasting for Cosmology
In the era of precision cosmology, establishing the correct magnitude of statistical errors in cosmological parameters is of crucial importance. However, widely used approximations in galaxy surveys analyses can lead to parameter…
With the advance in computational resources, Bayesian inference is increasingly becoming the standard tool of practise in GW astronomy. However, algorithms such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) require a large number of iterations to…
Background: When developing a clinical prediction model using time-to-event data, previous research focuses on the sample size to minimise overfitting and precisely estimate the overall risk. However, instability of individual-level risk…
We are entering an era where progress in cosmology is driven by data, and alternative models will have to be compared and ruled out according to some consistent criterium. The most conservative and widely used approach is Bayesian model…
Current and forthcoming cosmological data analyses share the challenge of huge datasets alongside increasingly tight requirements on the precision and accuracy of extracted cosmological parameters. The community is becoming increasingly…
We show how to verify the metrological usefulness of quantum states based on the expectation values of an arbitrarily chosen set of observables. In particular, we estimate the quantum Fisher information as a figure of merit of metrological…
The integrated shear 3-point correlation function $\zeta_{\pm}$ measures the correlation between the local shear 2-point function $\xi_{\pm}$ and the 1-point shear aperture mass in patches of the sky. Unlike other higher-order statistics,…
Weak lensing of galaxies by large scale structure can potentially measure cosmological quantities as accurately as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). However, the relation between observables and fundamental parameters is more complex…
Peculiar velocity surveys present a very promising route to measuring the growth rate of large-scale structure and its scale dependence. However, individual peculiar velocity surveys suffer from large statistical errors due to the intrinsic…
The equivalence principle, that is one of the main pillars of general relativity, is very well tested in the Solar system; however, its validity is more uncertain on cosmological scales, or when dark matter is concerned. This article shows…
We investigate the impact of filter choice on forecast accuracy in state space models. The filters are used both to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, via a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm, and to…
We propose the generalised Fisher information or the one-parameter extended class of the Fisher information for the case of one random variable. This new form of the Fisher information is obtained from the intriguing connection between the…
Information theory is a powerful framework to capture aspects of dynamical systems with multiple degrees of freedom. Mathematically, the dynamics can be represented as a continuous curve $\mathcal{C}$ on a suitable hyperplane in flat space…
When a posterior peaks in unexpected regions of parameter space, new physics has either been discovered, or a bias has not been identified yet. To tell these two cases apart is of paramount importance. We therefore present a method to…
Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…
Parameter inference with an estimated covariance matrix systematically loses information due to the remaining uncertainty of the covariance matrix. Here, we quantify this loss of precision and develop a framework to hypothetically restore…
We derive general expressions for the multi-tracer Fisher matrix, both assuming that the cross-spectra are constrained by the auto-spectra, and also allowing for independent degrees of freedom in the cross-spectra. We show that, just like…
We propose confidence regions with asymptotically correct uniform coverage probability of parameters whose Fisher information matrix can be singular at important points of the parameter set. Our work is motivated by the need for reliable…
The galaxy power spectrum is one of the central quantities in cosmology. It contains information about the primordial inflationary process, the matter clustering, the baryon-photon interaction, the effects of gravity, the galaxy-matter…
We consider 1-dimensional location estimation, where we estimate a parameter $\lambda$ from $n$ samples $\lambda + \eta_i$, with each $\eta_i$ drawn i.i.d. from a known distribution $f$. For fixed $f$ the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE)…