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The design and optimisation of aircraft wings are critical tasks in aerospace engineering, requiring a balance between structural integrity, aerostructural performance, and manufacturability. This multifaceted challenge involves the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Hauke Maathuis , Saullo G. P. Castro , Roeland De Breuker

A multi-fidelity simulator is a numerical model, in which one of the inputs controls a trade-off between the realism and the computational cost of the simulation. Our goal is to estimate the probability of exceeding a given threshold on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-31 Rémi Stroh , Julien Bect , Séverine Demeyer , Nicolas Fischer , Emmanuel Vazquez

In complex real-world settings, optimization is challenged by the presence of diverse models of differing fidelity. In many optimization problems, a single model is treated as the most accurate representation of the underlying system, while…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-07 Danielle F. Morey , Giulia Pedrielli , Cherry Y. Wakayama , Zelda B. Zabinsky

Calculation of Bayesian posteriors and model evidences typically requires numerical integration. Bayesian quadrature (BQ), a surrogate-model-based approach to numerical integration, is capable of superb sample efficiency, but its lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Masaki Adachi , Satoshi Hayakawa , Martin Jørgensen , Harald Oberhauser , Michael A. Osborne

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Yashas Annadani , Panagiotis Tigas , Desi R. Ivanova , Andrew Jesson , Yarin Gal , Adam Foster , Stefan Bauer

Behavior Trees (BTs) are becoming a popular tool to model the behaviors of autonomous agents in the computer game and the robotics industry. One of the key advantages of BTs lies in their composability, where complex behaviors can be built…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Michele Colledanchise , Lorenzo Natale

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity Bayesian experimental design framework to efficiently quantify the extreme-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. The…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-01-04 Xianliang Gong , Yulin Pan

The optimisation of fed-batch (bio)chemical process recipes is subject to inherent, underlying, and unmeasurable fluctuations across batches, whose trajectories are difficult to model and costly to measure. Bayesian Optimisation (BayesOpt)…

Engineering design is traditionally performed by hand: an expert makes design proposals based on past experience, and these proposals are then tested for compliance with certain target specifications. Testing for compliance is performed…

Bayesian global optimization (BGO) is an efficient surrogate-assisted technique for problems involving expensive evaluations. A parallel technique can be used to parallelly evaluate the true-expensive objective functions in one iteration to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-09 Kaifeng Yang , Guozhi Dong , Michael Affenzeller

Computer experiments can emulate the physical systems, help computational investigations, and yield analytic solutions. They have been widely employed with many engineering applications (e.g., aerospace, automotive, energy systems.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Yan Wang , Meng Wang , Areej AlBahar , Xiaowei Yue

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an integral part of automated scientific discovery -- the so-called self-driving lab -- where human inputs are ideally minimal or at least non-blocking. However, scientists often have strong intuition, and thus…

Achieving ultimate bounds in estimation processes is the main objective of quantum metrology. In this context, several problems require measurement of multiple parameters by employing only a limited amount of resources. To this end,…

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 George De Ath , Richard M. Everson , Jonathan E. Fieldsend

Recently, multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) has been successfully applied to many engineering design optimization problems, where the cost of high-fidelity simulations and experiments can be prohibitive. However, challenges remain…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Jingyi Wang , Nai-Yuan Chiang , Tucker Hartland , J. Luc Peterson , Jerome Solberg , Cosmin G. Petra

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-14 M. Giselle Fernández-Godino

Current embedded systems are specifically designed to run multimedia applications. These applications have a big impact on both performance and energy consumption. Both metrics can be optimized selecting the best cache configuration for a…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Josefa Díaz Álvarez , José L. Risco-Martín , J. Manuel Colmenar

The efficiency of an experimental design is ultimately measured in terms of time and resources needed for the experiment. Optimal sequential (multi-stage) design is studied in the situation where each stage involves a fixed cost. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-08 Juha Karvanen