Related papers: Estimating cross-border mobility from the differen…
The dynamics that govern disease spread are hard to model because infections are functions of both the underlying pathogen as well as human or animal behavior. This challenge is increased when modeling how diseases spread between different…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
Epidemics expose critical tensions between protecting public health and maintaining essential urban mobility. Public transport systems face this dilemma most acutely: they enable access to jobs, education, and services, yet also facilitate…
This paper introduces a novel hybrid model combining Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to simulate infectious disease dynamics across geographic regions. By leveraging the spatial detail of…
Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…
In this work, we adapt the epidemiological SIR model to study the evolution of the dissemination of COVID-19 in Germany and Brazil (nationally, in the State of Paraiba, and in the City of Campina Grande). We prove the well posedness and the…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
We propose a model, which nests a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) epidemic model into a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework with agents' mobility. The latter affect both their income and their probability of infecting…
Mobility restriction is considered one of the main policies to contain COVID-10 spreading. However, there are multiple ways to reduce mobility via differentiated restrictions, and it is not easy to predict the actual impact on virus…
As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks have become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of…
The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address…
Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…
In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…
In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model…
In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different…
One approach to delay the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is to reduce human travel by imposing travel restriction policies. It is yet unclear how effective those policies are on suppressing the mobility trend due to the lack of…