Related papers: Estimating cross-border mobility from the differen…
The COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on how the spread of infectious diseases worldwide are importantly shaped by both human mobility networks and socio-economic factors. Few studies, however, have examined the interaction of mobility…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
Many transport authorities are collecting and publishing almost real-time road traffic data to meet the growing trend of massive open data, a vital resource for foresight decision support systems considering deep data insights. We explored…
To manage the COVID-19 epidemic effectively, decision-makers in public health need accurate forecasts of case numbers. A potential near real-time predictor of future case numbers is human mobility; however, research on the predictive power…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus…
The SEIRS model, an extension of the SEIR model for analyzing and predicting the spread of virus infection, was further extended to consider the movement of people across regions. In contrast to previous models that con-sider the risk of…
In the last decade, humanity has faced many different pandemics such as SARS, H1N1, and presently novel coronavirus (COVID-19). On one side, scientists are focusing on vaccinations, and on the other side, there is a need to propose models…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
This study examines the effectiveness of regional lockdown strategies in mitigating pathogen spread across regional units, termed cities hereinafter. We develop simplified models to analyze infection spread across cities within a country…
Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention. While most data-driven forecasting approaches rely primarily on historical data from a single country, such data are often…
Daily variation in human mobility modulates the speed and severity of emerging outbreaks, yet most epidemiological studies assume static contact patterns. With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a…
Human mobility is an important factor in the propagation of infectious diseases. In particular, the spatial spread of a disease is a consequence of human mobility. On the other hand, the control strategies based on mobility restrictions are…
The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
Human mobility plays a crucial role in the spread of human diseases, but is rarely quantified in plant disease epidemics. To address this gap, we integrate a unique, high-resolution network of human movements in New Zealand with a…
The patterns of human mobility play a key role in the spreading of infectious diseases and thus represent a key ingredient of epidemic modeling and forecasting. Unfortunately, as the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted, for the…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…