Related papers: Randomization of Short-Rate Models, Analytic Prici…
This paper investigates short-term behaviors of implied volatility of derivatives written on indexes in equity markets when the index processes are constructed by using a ranking procedure. Even in simple market settings where stock prices…
In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process…
American put options are among the most frequently traded single stock options, and their calibration is computationally challenging since no closed-form expression is available. Due to the higher flexibility in comparison to European…
This paper proposes a new design method for a stochastic control policy using a normalizing flow (NF). In reinforcement learning (RL), the policy is usually modeled as a distribution model with trainable parameters. When this…
We introduce a framework that allows to employ (non-negative) measure-valued processes for energy market modeling, in particular for electricity and gas futures. Interpreting the process' spatial structure as time to maturity, we show how…
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
The aim of this work is to introduce a new stochastic volatility model for equity derivatives. To overcome some of the well-known problems of the Heston model, and more generally of the affine models, we define a new specification for the…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…
External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…
This study is motivated by empirical observations of periodic fluctuations in interest rates, notably long-term economic cycles spanning decades, which the conventional Hull-White short-rate model fails to adequately capture. To address…
We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement…
With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (\euro STR)…
This paper shows a novel machine learning model for realized volatility (RV) prediction using a normalizing flow, an invertible neural network. Since RV is known to be skewed and have a fat tail, previous methods transform RV into values…
Policymakers in resource-constrained settings require experimental designs that satisfy strict budget limits while ensuring precise estimation of treatment effects. We propose a framework that applies a dependent randomized rounding…
This paper analyzes single-item continuous-review inventory models with random supplies in which the inventory dynamic between orders is described by a diffusion process, and a long-term average cost criterion is used to evaluate decisions.…
Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et…