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Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-14 Michael J Mahoney , Lucas K Johnson , Julia Silge , Hannah Frick , Max Kuhn , Colin M Beier

Data-driven models are subject to model errors due to limited and noisy training data. Key to the application of such models in safety-critical domains is the quantification of their model error. Gaussian processes provide such a measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

With the increasing size of today's data sets, finding the right parameter configuration in model selection via cross-validation can be an extremely time-consuming task. In this paper we propose an improved cross-validation procedure which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-02-05 Tammo Krueger , Danny Panknin , Mikio Braun

In high-dimensional classification settings, we wish to seek a balance between high power and ensuring control over a desired loss function. In many settings, the points most likely to be misclassified are those who lie near the decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-06 Arun Srinivasan

The problem of identifying statistically significant inferences about the structure of the graphical model is considered, along with the related task of constructing a confidence set for a graphical model. It has been proven that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 P. A. Koldanov , A. P. Koldanov

Many modern datasets, such as those in ecology and geology, are composed of samples with spatial structure and dependence. With such data violating the usual independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption in machine learning and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-18 Kevin Fry , Jonathan E. Taylor

Symbolic Regression remains an NP-Hard problem, with extensive research focusing on AI models for this task. Transformer models have shown promise in Symbolic Regression, but performance suffers with smaller datasets. We propose applying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Kaustubh Kislay , Shlok Singh , Soham Joshi , Rohan Dutta , Jay Shim , George Flint , Kevin Zhu

The analysis of high dimensional survival data is challenging, primarily due to the problem of overfitting which occurs when spurious relationships are inferred from data that subsequently fail to exist in test data. Here we propose a novel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-28 James E. Barrett , Anthony C. C. Coolen

Determining the appropriate number of clusters in unsupervised learning is a central problem in statistics and data science. Traditional validity indices such as Calinski-Harabasz, Silhouette, and Davies-Bouldin-depend on centroid-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-17 Mohammed Baragilly , Hend Gabr

We propose an extensive simulation study to compare some variable selection procedures in a high-dimensional framework. Assuming that the relationship between the actives variables and the response variable is linear, the high-dimensional…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-21 Perrine Lacroix , Mélina Gallopin , Marie-Laure Martin

With the growing application of spatial predictive modeling in ecology, the question of how to appropriately evaluate the resulting maps has gained increasing attention. While there is consensus that map accuracy is ideally estimated using…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Jan Linnenbrink , Jakub Nowosad , Hanna Meyer

The goal of this research is to derive an approach to assess uncertainty in an arbitrary volume conditioned by sampling data, without using geostatistical simulation. We have accomplished this goal by deriving an numerical tool suitable for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Alvaro I. Riquelme , Julian M. Ortiz

This paper provides the relevant literature with a complete toolkit for conducting robust estimation and inference about the parameters of interest involved in a high-dimensional panel data framework. Specifically, (1) we allow for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-13 Jiti Gao , Fei Liu , Bin Peng , Yayi Yan

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Jacopo Teneggi , Matthew Tivnan , J. Webster Stayman , Jeremias Sulam

This paper develops new insights into quantitative methods for the validation of computational model prediction. Four types of methods are investigated, namely classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing, a reliability-based method, and an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-06-25 You Ling , Sankaran Mahadevan

We study the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation in the high dimensional regime where both the sample size $n$ and number of features $p$ are large, and $n/p$ can be less than one. Extensive empirical evidence confirms the accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Wenda Zhou , Arian Maleki

We consider prediction in multiple studies with potential differences in the relationships between predictors and outcomes. Our objective is to integrate data from multiple studies to develop prediction models for unseen studies. We propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Boyu Ren , Prasad Patil , Francesca Dominici , Giovanni Parmigiani , Lorenzo Trippa

We study the mean-squared error of $k$-fold cross-validation as a risk estimator, with particular emphasis on how its accuracy depends on the number of folds $k$. Despite the widespread use of cross-validation, principled guidance for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Ido Nachum , Rüdiger Urbanke , Thomas Weinberger

In this article, we rigorously establish the consistency of generalized cross-validation as a parameter-choice rule for solving inverse problems. We prove that the index chosen by leave-one-out GCV achieves a non-asymptotic, order-optimal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Tim Jahn , Mikhail Kirilin

Common cross-validation (CV) methods like k-fold cross-validation or Monte-Carlo cross-validation estimate the predictive performance of a learner by repeatedly training it on a large portion of the given data and testing on the remaining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Felix Mohr , Jan N. van Rijn