Related papers: Jihad over Centuries
Economic historians have long studied market integration and contagion dynamics during periods of warfare and global stress, but there is a lack of model-based evidence on these phenomena. This paper uses an econometric contagion model, the…
We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation…
Motivated by recent findings that human mobility is proxy for crime behavior in big cities and that there is a superlinear relationship between the people's movement and crime, this article aims to evaluate the impact of how these findings…
Introduction. It is well known that social contact patterns differ from country to country. This variation coincides with significant socioeconomic heterogeneity that complicates the design of effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
In this work we study a simple mathematical model to analyze the emergence and control of radicalization phenomena. The population consisits of core and sensitive subpopulations, and their ways of life may be at least partially…
Despite substantial research efforts evaluating how well large language models~(LLMs) handle global cultural diversity, the mechanisms behind their cultural knowledge acquisition, particularly in multilingual settings, remain unclear. We…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
Migration plays a crucial role in urban growth. Over time, individuals opting to relocate led to vast metropolises like London and Paris during the Industrial Revolution, Shanghai and Karachi during the last decades and thousands of smaller…
The complex relationship between climate shocks, migration, and adaptation hampers a rigorous understanding of the heterogeneous mobility outcomes of farm households exposed to climate risk. To unpack this heterogeneity, the analysis…
This article examines the political consequences of terrorism in Burkina Faso. Using a dataset combining geolocated terrorist events from ACLED (from 2015 to 2024) with public opinion data from Afrobarometer, I compare the effect of…
We address the problem of diversification in religions by studying selection on cultural memes that colonize humans hosts. In analogy to studying the evolution of pathogens or symbionts colonizing animal hosts, we use models for…
Water level measurements from 15 tide gauges in the coastal zone of Bangladesh are analyzed in conjunction with cyclone tracks and wind speed data for 54 cyclones between 1977 and 2010. Storm surge magnitude is inferred from residual water…
If Tunisia was hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators compared to other Arab countries, the 2011 popular uprisings demonstrate the need for political reforms but also major economic…
This paper studies the long-run economic and institutional consequences of Iran's confrontation with the West, treating the 2006-2007 strategic shift as the onset of a sustained confrontation regime rather than a discrete sanctions episode.…
Increasing evidence suggests that cities are complex systems, with structural and dynamical features responsible for a broad spectrum of emerging phenomena. Here we use a unique data set of human flows and couple it with information on the…
Machine learning has witnessed tremendous growth in its adoption and advancement in the last decade. The evolution of machine learning from traditional algorithms to modern deep learning architectures has shaped the way today's technology…
In this paper, I empirically investigate how the openness of political institutions to diverse representation can impact conflict-related violence. By exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the number of councillors in Colombian…
This paper addresses a method to analyze the covert social network foundation hidden behind the terrorism disaster. It is to solve a node discovery problem, which means to discover a node, which functions relevantly in a social network, but…
Who joins extremist movements? Answering this question poses considerable methodological challenges. Survey techniques are infeasible and selective samples provide no counterfactual. Recruits can be assigned to contextual units, but this is…