Related papers: Bayesian Neural Networks for Macroeconomic Analysi…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have shown promising performance for language modeling. However, traditional training of RNNs using back-propagation through time often suffers from overfitting. One reason for this is that stochastic…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have become one of the promising approaches for uncertainty estimation due to the solid theorical foundations. However, the performance of BNNs is affected by the ability of catching uncertainty. Instead of…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the…
Modeling natural phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs) often provides highly accurate predictions. However, ANNs often suffer from over-parameterization, complicating interpretation and raising uncertainty issues. Bayesian neural…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), unlike Traditional Neural Networks (TNNs) are robust and adept at handling adversarial attacks by incorporating randomness. This randomness improves the estimation of uncertainty, a feature lacking in TNNs.…
Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer robust uncertainty quantification in model predictions, but training them presents a significant computational challenge. This is mainly due to the problem of sampling multimodal posterior distributions…
Correlation Networks (CNs) inherently suffer from redundant information in their network topology. Bayesian Networks (BNs), on the other hand, include only non-redundant information (from a probabilistic perspective) resulting in a sparse…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) combine the expressive power of deep learning with the advantages of Bayesian formalism. In recent years, the analysis of wide, deep BNNs has provided theoretical insight into their priors and posteriors.…
Despite its long history, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and variational training remain underused in practice: standard Gaussian posteriors misalign with network geometry, KL terms can be brittle in high dimensions, and implementations…
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…
In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…
Bayesian Networks (BN) provide robust probabilistic methods of reasoning under uncertainty, but despite their formal grounds are strictly based on the notion of conditional dependence, not much attention has been paid so far to their use in…
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We describe and study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into…
This paper integrates deep neural networks (DNNs) into structural economic models to increase flexibility and capture rich heterogeneity while preserving interpretability. Economic structure and machine learning are complements in empirical…
We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…
Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…
While offering a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, the employment of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) is still constrained by their increased computational requirements and the convergence difficulties…
To evaluate the robustness gain of Bayesian neural networks on image classification tasks, we perform input perturbations, and adversarial attacks to the state-of-the-art Bayesian neural networks, with a benchmark CNN model as reference.…