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To identify the estimand in missing data problems and observational studies, it is common to base the statistical estimation on the "missing at random" and "no unmeasured confounder" assumptions. However, these assumptions are unverifiable…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-09 Qingyuan Zhao , Dylan S. Small , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya

We provide an approach to exploratory data analysis in matched observational studies with a single intervention and multiple endpoints. In such settings, the researcher would like to explore evidence for actual treatment effects among these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mengqi Lin , Colin Fogarty

Matching is one of the most widely used study designs for adjusting for measured confounders in observational studies. However, unmeasured confounding may exist and cannot be removed by matching. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Jeffrey Zhang , Dylan Small , Siyu Heng

Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-04 Jacob Dorn , Kevin Guo

Unmeasured confounding, selection bias, and measurement error are well-known sources of bias in epidemiologic research. Methods for assessing these biases have their own limitations. Many quantitative sensitivity analysis approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Louisa H. Smith , Maya B. Mathur , Tyler J. VanderWeele

In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Kosuke Imai

A key objective of decomposition analysis is to identify a factor (the 'mediator') contributing to disparities in an outcome between social groups. In decomposition analysis, a scholarly interest often centers on estimating how much the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-27 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee , Shujie Ma

Propensity score matching is a common tool for adjusting for observed confounding in observational studies, but is known to have limitations in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In many settings, researchers are confronted with…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-08 Georgia Papadogeorgou , Christine Choirat , Corwin Zigler

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

We propose a novel method for sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding in causal inference. The method builds on a copula-based causal graphical normalizing flow that we term $\rho$-GNF, where $\rho \in [-1,+1]$ is the sensitivity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Sourabh Balgi , Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud

The association between a continuous and an ordinal variable is commonly modeled through the polyserial correlation model. However, this model, which is based on a partially-latent normality assumption, may be misspecified in practice, due…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Max Welz

Multivariate meta-analysis of test accuracy studies when tests are evaluated in terms of sensitivity and specificity at more than one threshold represents an effective way to synthesize results by fully exploiting the data, if compared to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-29 Annamaria Guolo , Duc Khanh To

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Spurious association arises from covariance between propensity for the treatment and individual risk for the outcome. For sensitivity analysis with stochastic counterfactuals we introduce a methodology to characterize uncertainty in causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-11 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba

The propensity score (PS) is often used to control for large numbers of covariates in high-dimensional healthcare database studies. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) has become the most widely used tool for fitting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Richard Wyss , Ben B. Hansen , Georg Hahn , Lars van der Laan , Kueiyu Joshua Lin

We extend our previous work on sensitivity analysis for the risk ratio and difference contrasts under unmeasured confounding to any contrast. We prove that the bounds produced are still arbitrarily sharp, i.e. practically attainable. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-13 Jose M. Peña

The lack of non-parametric statistical tests for confounding bias significantly hampers the development of robust, valid and generalizable predictive models in many fields of research. Here I propose the partial and full confounder tests,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Tamas Spisak

Contrasting marginal counterfactual survival curves across treatment arms is an effective and popular approach for inferring the causal effect of an intervention on a right-censored time-to-event outcome. A key challenge to drawing such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-29 Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across various tasks, but their performance is highly sensitive to the prompts utilized. This variability poses challenges for accurate assessment and user satisfaction.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Jingming Zhuo , Songyang Zhang , Xinyu Fang , Haodong Duan , Dahua Lin , Kai Chen