Related papers: A measure-valued stochastic model for vector-borne…
We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…
It is estimated that around 80\% of the world's population live in areas susceptible to at-least one major vector borne disease, and approximately 20% of global communicable diseases are spread by mosquitoes. Furthermore, the outbreaks of…
A deterministic pathogen transmission model based on high-fidelity physics has been developed. The model combines computational fluid dynamics and computational crowd dynamics in order to be able to provide accurate tracing of viral matter…
The spread of viruses in biological networks, computer networks, and human contact networks can have devastating effects; developing and analyzing mathematical models of these systems can be insightful and lead to societal benefits. Prior…
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as…
State-space models have been widely used to model the dynamics of communicable diseases in populations of interest by fitting to time-series data. Particle filters have enabled these models to incorporate stochasticity and so can better…
Logarithmic growth-rates are fundamental observables for describing ecological systems and the characterization of their distributions with analytical techniques can greatly improve their comprehension. Here a neutral model based on a…
Spatio-temporal pathogen spread is often partially observed at the metapopulation scale. Available data correspond to proxies and are incomplete, censored and heterogeneous. Moreover, representing such biological systems often leads to…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
We derive exact expressions for the finite-time statistics of extrema (maximum and minimum) of the spatial displacement and the fluctuating entropy flow of biased random walks. Our approach captures key features of extreme events in…
We propose a robust parameter estimation method for dynamical systems based on Statistical Learning techniques which aims to estimate a set of parameters that well fit the dynamics in order to obtain robust evidences about the qualitative…
Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including…
In this paper, we study a two-dimensional process arising as the unique nonnegative solution to a system of two stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with mutually enhancing two-way interactions driven by independent Brownian motions and…
The optimal control of epidemic-like stochastic processes is important both historically and for emerging applications today, where it can be especially important to include time-varying parameters that impact viral epidemic-like…
Inferring the driving equations of a dynamical system from population or time-course data is important in several scientific fields such as biochemistry, epidemiology, financial mathematics and many others. Despite the existence of…
In this paper, we study a finite population undergoing discrete, nonoverlapping generations, that is structured into $D$ demes, each containing $N$ individuals of two possible types, $A$ and $B$, whose viability coefficients, $s_A$ and…
There has been an increasing recognition of the utility of models of the spatial dynamics of viral spread within tissues. Multicellular models, where cells are represented as discrete regions of space coupled to a virus density surface, are…
We consider a stochastic model of population dynamics where each individual is characterised by a trait in {0,1,...,L} and has a natural reproduction rate, a logistic death rate due to age or competition and a probability of mutation…
A class of measure-valued processes which model multilevel populations undergoing mutation, selection, genetic drift and spatial migration is considered. We investigate the qualitative behaviour of models with multilevel selection and the…