English
Related papers

Related papers: Stability estimates for the expected utility in Ba…

200 papers

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Marvin Schmitt , Desi R. Ivanova , Daniel Habermann , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev

We propose to use L\'evy {\alpha}-stable distributions for constructing priors for Bayesian inverse problems. The construction is based on Markov fields with stable-distributed increments. Special cases include the Cauchy and Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-26 Jarkko Suuronen , Tomás Soto , Neil K. Chada , Lassi Roininen

This work is concerned with nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing in the context of nonlinear inverse problems with random observations. Bayesian posterior distributions based upon a Gaussian process prior distribution are proven to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Remo Kretschmann , Han Cheng Lie

We investigate how the following properties are related to each other: i)-A manifold is "transversally" exponentially stable; ii)-The "transverse" linearization along any solution in the manifold is exponentially stable; iii)-There exists a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-01-05 Vincent Andrieu , Bayu Jayawardhana , Laurent Praly

Bayesian adaptive designs have gained popularity in all phases of clinical trials with numerous new developments in the past few decades. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the need to establish evidence for the effectiveness of vaccines,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-08 Shirin Golchi

In statistical physics lately a specific kind of average, called the q-expectation value, has been extensively used in the context of q-generalized statistics dealing with distributions following power-laws. In this context q-expectation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Rudolf Hanel , Stefan Thurner

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-01-20 Gerhard Hummer , Jürgen Köfinger

Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2011-12-14 Robert J. Erhardt , Richard L. Smith

In this paper we deal with the regression problem in a random design setting. We investigate asymptotic optimality under minimax point of view of various Bayesian rules based on warped wavelets and show that they nearly attain optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Thanh Mai Pham Ngoc

Decision theory does not traditionally include uncertainty over utility functions. We argue that the a person's utility value for a given outcome can be treated as we treat other domain attributes: as a random variable with a density…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Urszula Chajewska , Daphne Koller

A local convergence rate is established for a Gauss orthogonal collocation method applied to optimal control problems with control constraints. If the Hamiltonian possesses a strong convexity property, then the theory yields convergence for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-09-17 William W. Hager , Jun Liu , Subhashree Mohapatra , Anil V. Rao , Xiang-Sheng Wang

In this paper, we address the challenging problem of optimal experimental design (OED) of constrained inverse problems. We consider two OED formulations that allow reducing the experimental costs by minimizing the number of measurements.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-08-17 Lars Ruthotto , Julianne Chung , Matthias Chung

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-08 Samuel Bronstein , Stefan Engblom , Robin Marin

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

In the realm of supervised learning, Bayesian learning has shown robust predictive capabilities under input and parameter perturbations. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrate the robustness properties of Bayesian learning in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Nardos Ayele Ashenafi , Wankun Sirichotiyakul , Aykut C. Satici

We present a method for computing A-optimal sensor placements for infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems governed by PDEs with irreducible model uncertainties. Here, irreducible uncertainties refers to uncertainties in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Karina Koval , Alen Alexanderian , Georg Stadler

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

We derive a sufficient condition for stability in probability of an equilibrium of a randomly perturbed map in ${\mathbb R}^d$. This condition can be used to stabilize weakly unstable equilibria by random forcing. Analytical results on…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-05-16 Pawel Hitczenko , Georgi S. Medvedev

A comprehensive convergence and stability analysis of some probabilistic numerical methods designed to solve Cauchy-type inverse problems is performed in this study. Such inverse problems aim at solving an elliptic partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Iulian Cîmpean , Andreea Grecu , Liviu Marin

We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-29 H. C. Lie , T. J. Sullivan , A. L. Teckentrup