Related papers: A generalized AIC for models with singularities an…

We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on…

In multivariate extreme value statistics, the first step in understanding the dependence structure of extremes is identifying the directions in which they occur. The novelty of this paper is the analysis of high-dimensional extreme value…

Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is…

We provide a brief overview of both Bayes and classical model selection. We argue tentatively that model selection has at least two major goals, that of finding the correct model or predicting well, and that in general both these goals may…

Inference for the parameters indexing generalised linear models is routinely based on the assumption that the model is correct and a priori specified. This is unsatisfactory because the chosen model is usually the result of a data-adaptive…

Modern machine learning models with a large number of parameters often generalize well despite perfectly interpolating noisy training data - a phenomenon known as benign overfitting. A foundational explanation for this in linear…

This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…

Double-descent refers to the unexpected drop in test loss of a learning algorithm beyond an interpolating threshold with over-parameterization, which is not predicted by information criteria in their classical forms due to the limitations…

Naively trained AI models can be heavily biased. This can be particularly problematic when the biases involve legally or morally protected attributes such as ethnic background, age or gender. Existing solutions to this problem come at the…

The identification of the lag length for vector autoregressive models by mean of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Partial Autoregressive and Correlation Matrices (PAM and PCM hereafter) is studied in the framework of processes with time…

The ability of machine learning (ML) algorithms to generalize well to unseen data has been studied through the lens of information theory, by bounding the generalization error with the input-output mutual information (MI), i.e., the MI…

A widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (Watanabe, 2013) is applicable for both regular and singular models in the model selection problem. This criterion tends to overestimate the log marginal likelihood. We identify an…

Models with fewer parameters are often easier to interpret and more robust. Parsimony can be achieved through optimizing objectives like the AIC or BIC, which are functions of the the number of free parameters in the model. Optimizing this…

To address the growing size of AI model training data and the lack of a universal data selection methodology-factors that significantly drive up training costs -- this paper presents the General Information Metrics Evaluation (GIME) method.…

Inequalities may appear in many models. They can be as simple as assuming a parameter is nonnegative, possibly a regression coefficient or a treatment effect. This paper focuses on the case that there is only one inequality and proposes a…

In the realm of the model selection context, Akaike's and Schwarz's information criteria, AIC and BIC, have been applied successfully for decades for model order identification. The Efficient Determination Criterion (EDC) is a…

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our…

Algorithms often have tunable parameters that impact performance metrics such as runtime and solution quality. For many algorithms used in practice, no parameter settings admit meaningful worst-case bounds, so the parameters are made…

Extreme edge-AI systems, such as those in readout ASICs for radiation detection, must operate under stringent hardware constraints such as micron-level dimensions, sub-milliwatt power, and nanosecond-scale speed while providing clear…

This paper considers forecasts of the growth and inflation distributions of the United Kingdom with factor-augmented quantile autoregressions under a model averaging framework. We investigate model combinations across models using weights…