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This paper considers the problem of approximating a density when it can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant at a limited number of points. We call this problem the Boltzmann approximation (BA) problem. The BA problem is ubiquitous in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-08 Youngjun Choe , Yen-Chi Chen , Nick Terry

Model selection and order selection problems frequently arise in statistical practice. A popular approach to addressing these problems in the frequentist setting involves information criteria based on penalised maxima of log-likelihoods for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Hien Duy Nguyen , Mayetri Gupta , Jacob Westerhout , TrungTin Nguyen

In this work, we propose a modified Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) specifically designed for mixture models and hierarchical structures. This criterion incorporates the determinant of the Hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function,…

The semiparametric estimation approach, which includes inverse-probability-weighted and doubly robust estimation using propensity scores, is a standard tool in causal inference, and it is rapidly being extended in various directions. On the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-29 Takamichi Baba , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

A statistical model or a learning machine is called regular if the map taking a parameter to a probability distribution is one-to-one and if its Fisher information matrix is always positive definite. If otherwise, it is called singular. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-03 Sumio Watanabe

The widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) has been used as a model selection criterion for Bayesian statistics in recent years. It is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Ali Soltani , Gabriel Kronberger , Fabricio Olivetti de Franca , Mattia Billa , Alessandro Lucantonio

Variable selection is essential for improving inference and interpretation in multivariate linear regression. Although a number of alternative regressor selection criteria have been suggested, the most prominent and widely used are the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Zhidong Bai , Yasunori Fujikoshi , Jiang Hu

Geometric Akaike Information Criteria (G-AICs) for generalized noise-level dependent crystallographic symmetry classifications of two-dimensional (2D) images that are more or less periodic in either two or one dimensions as well as Akaike…

Applied Physics · Physics 2018-01-08 Peter Moeck

Penalized likelihood methods with an $\ell_{\gamma}$-type penalty, such as the Bridge, the SCAD, and the MCP, allow us to estimate a parameter and to do variable selection, simultaneously, if $\gamma\in (0,1]$. In this method, it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-28 Yuta Umezu , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

For prediction models developed on clustered data that do not account for cluster heterogeneity in model parameterization, it is crucial to use cluster-based validation to assess model generalizability on unseen clusters. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Jiaxing Qiu , Douglas E. Lake , Pavel Chernyavskiy , Teague R. Henry

We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-05 J. M. Chen , A. G. Hawkes , E. Scalas , M. Trinh

Model selection is indispensable to high-dimensional sparse modeling in selecting the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate models. Most existing work assumes implicitly that the model is correctly specified or of fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-24 Pallavi Basu , Yang Feng , Jinchi Lv

In this article we propose a general class of risk measures which can be used for data based evaluation of parametric models. The loss function is defined as generalized quadratic distance between the true density and the proposed model.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-10-02 Surajit Ray , Bruce G. Lindsay

Assume that observations are generated from an infinite-order autoregressive [AR($\infty$)] process. Shibata [Ann. Statist. 8 (1980) 147--164] considered the problem of choosing a finite-order AR model, allowing the order to become infinite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Ching-Kang Ing , Ching-Zong Wei

Occupancy models are typically used to determine the probability of a species being present at a given site while accounting for imperfect detection. The survey data underlying these models often include information on several predictors…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-09 Daniel Taylor-Rodriguez , Andrew Womack , Claudio Fuentes , Nikolay Bliznyuk

In silico screening uses predictive models to select a batch of compounds with favorable properties from a library for experimental validation. Unlike conventional learning paradigms, success in this context is measured by the performance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-24 Andreas Loukas , Pan Kessel , Vladimir Gligorijevic , Richard Bonneau

We seek to narrow the gap between parametric and nonparametric modelling of stationary time series processes. The approach is inspired by recent advances in focused inference and model selection techniques. The paper generalises and extends…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Gudmund Hermansen , Nils Lid Hjort , Martin Jullum

Longitudinal data are common in clinical trials and observational studies, where missing outcomes due to dropouts are always encountered. Under such context with the assumption of missing at random, the weighted generalized estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Chixiang Chen , Biyi Shen , Lijun Zhang , Yuan Xue , Ming Wang

A common problem in numerous research areas, particularly in clinical trials, is to test whether the effect of an explanatory variable on an outcome variable is equivalent across different groups. In practice, these tests are frequently…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Niklas Hagemann , Kathrin Möllenhoff