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Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Markus Hainy , David J. Price , Olivier Restif , Christopher Drovandi

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Ruanui Nicholson , Radoslav Vuchkov , Umberto Villa , Noemi Petra

We study the optimal design problem under second-order least squares estimation which is known to outperform ordinary least squares estimation when the error distribution is asymmetric. First, a general approximate theory is developed,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-14 Mausumi Bose , Rahul Mukerjee

Engineering design is traditionally performed by hand: an expert makes design proposals based on past experience, and these proposals are then tested for compliance with certain target specifications. Testing for compliance is performed…

We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Yashas Annadani , Panagiotis Tigas , Desi R. Ivanova , Andrew Jesson , Yarin Gal , Adam Foster , Stefan Bauer

We consider constrained bilinear optimal control of second-order linear evolution partial differential equations (PDEs) with a reaction term on the half line, where control arises as a time-dependent reaction coefficient and constraints are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-11-20 Zhexian Li , Felipe de Barros , Ketan Savla

Inverse design of morphing slender structures with programmable curvature has significant applications in various engineering fields. Most existing studies formulate it as an optimization problem, which requires repeatedly solving the…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-08-28 JiaHao Li , Weicheng Huang , YinBo Zhu , Luxia Yu , Xiaohao Sun , Mingchao Liu , HengAn Wu

Under a generalised estimating equation analysis approach, approximate design theory is used to determine Bayesian D-optimal designs. For two examples, considering simple exchangeable and exponential decay correlation structures, we compare…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-16 Laura Etfer , James M. S. Wason , Michael J. Grayling

Within the framework of complex system design, it is often necessary to solve mixed variable optimization problems, in which the objective and constraint functions can depend simultaneously on continuous and discrete variables.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Julien Pelamatti , Loic Brevault , Mathieu Balesdent , El-Ghazali Talbi , Yannick Guerin

We study a convex optimization framework for bounding extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems governed by ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs or PDEs). This framework bounds from above the largest value of an observable…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Giovanni Fantuzzi , David Goluskin

We investigate the use of neural networks (NNs) for the estimation of hidden model parameters and uncertainty quantification from noisy observational data for inverse parameter estimation problems. We formulate the parameter estimation as a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-17 German Villalobos , Johann Rudi , Andreas Mang

We propose a novel machine learning framework for solving optimization problems governed by large-scale partial differential equations (PDEs) with high-dimensional random parameters. Such optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problems may be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-01 Dingcheng Luo , Thomas O'Leary-Roseberry , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

Sequential filtering and spatial inverse problems assimilate data points distributed either temporally (in the case of filtering) or spatially (in the case of spatial inverse problems). Sometimes it is possible to choose the position of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Sahani Pathiraja , Claudia Schillings , Philipp Wacker

The issue of determining not only an adequate dose but also a dosing frequency of a drug arises frequently in Phase II clinical trials. This results in the comparison of models which have some parameters in common. Planning such studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-16 Kirsten Schorning , Maria Konstantinou

Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael U. Gutmann

We introduce implicit Deep Adaptive Design (iDAD), a new method for performing adaptive experiments in real-time with implicit models. iDAD amortizes the cost of Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) by learning a design policy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-04 Desi R. Ivanova , Adam Foster , Steven Kleinegesse , Michael U. Gutmann , Tom Rainforth

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

We introduce a novel geometric framework for optimal experimental design (OED). Traditional OED approaches, such as those based on mutual information, rely explicitly on probability densities, leading to restrictive invariance properties.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-17 Gavin Kerrigan , Christian A. Naesseth , Tom Rainforth

Recently, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling physical simulations without explicitly defining the ODEs governing the system, but instead learning them via machine learning. However, the…

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-31 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan