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Standard machine learning is unable to accommodate inputs which do not belong to the training distribution. The resulting models often give rise to confident incorrect predictions which may lead to devastating consequences. This problem is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Matej Grcić , Petra Bevandić , Zoran Kalafatić , Siniša Šegvić

A generative model may generate utter nonsense when it is fit to maximize the likelihood of observed data. This happens due to "model error," i.e., when the true data generating distribution does not fit within the class of generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-21 Steve Hanneke , Adam Kalai , Gautam Kamath , Christos Tzamos

Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Local explanation frameworks aim to rationalize particular decisions made by a black-box prediction model. Existing techniques are often restricted to a specific type of predictor or based on input saliency, which may be undesirably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Brandon Carter , Jonas Mueller , Siddhartha Jain , David Gifford

Cross-entropy loss is the standard metric used to train classification models in deep learning and gradient boosting. It is well-known that this loss function fails to account for similarities between the different values of the target. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Brian Lucena

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling. Despite more stable training, the loss of diffusion models is not indicative of absolute data-fitting quality, since its optimal value is typically not zero but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Yixian Xu , Shengjie Luo , Liwei Wang , Di He , Chang Liu

The majority of traditional classification ru les minimizing the expected probability of error (0-1 loss) are inappropriate if the class probability distributions are ill-defined or impossible to estimate. We argue that in such cases class…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-14 Robert P. W. Duin , Elzbieta Pekalska

Proper learning refers to the setting in which learners must emit predictors in the underlying hypothesis class $H$, and often leads to learners with simple algorithmic forms (e.g. empirical risk minimization (ERM), structural risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Julian Asilis , Siddartha Devic , Shaddin Dughmi , Vatsal Sharan , Shang-Hua Teng

Although deep neural networks are effective on supervised learning tasks, they have been shown to be brittle. They are prone to overfitting on their training distribution and are easily fooled by small adversarial perturbations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Laëtitia Shao , Yang Song , Stefano Ermon

With the increasing adoption of predictive models trained using machine learning across a wide range of high-stakes applications, e.g., health care, security, criminal justice, finance, and education, there is a growing need for effective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Aria Khademi , Vasant Honavar

This paper addresses optimal decoding strategies in lossy compression where the assumed distribution for compressor design mismatches the actual (true) distribution of the source. This problem has immediate relevance in standardized…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Saeed R. Khosravirad , Ahmed Alkhateeb , Ingrid van de Voorde

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

The development of diffusion-based generative models over the past decade has largely proceeded independently of progress in representation learning. These diffusion models typically rely on regression-based objectives and generally lack…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Runqian Wang , Kaiming He

Cross-entropy (CE) is the default training loss for supervised classification, but its sample efficiency is limited when labels are scarce. Existing remedies primarily act on the data side, via augmentation, synthesis, or transfer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Qipeng Zhan , Zhuoping Zhou , Li Shen

Gene gain-loss-duplication models are commonly based on continuous-time birth-death processes. Employed in a phylogenetic context, such models have been increasingly popular in studies of gene content evolution across multiple genomes.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-27 Miklos Csuros

The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yingying Yang , Niloufar Dousti Mousavi , Zhou Yu , Jie Yang

We consider the problem of generating valid and small prediction sets by sampling outputs (e.g., software code and natural language text) from a black-box deep generative model for a given input (e.g., textual prompt). The validity of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Hooman Shahrokhi , Devjeet Raj Roy , Yan Yan , Venera Arnaoudova , Janaradhan Rao Doppa

Generative models frequently suffer miscalibration, wherein statistics of the sampling distribution, such as the fraction of generations in a given class, deviate from desired values. We frame calibration as a constrained optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Henry D. Smith , Nathaniel L. Diamant , Brian L. Trippe

Most existing theoretical investigations of the accuracy of diffusion models, albeit significant, assume the score function has been approximated to a certain accuracy, and then use this a priori bound to control the error of generation.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yuqing Wang , Ye He , Molei Tao

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès