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Simulation-based inference (SBI) is emerging as a new statistical paradigm for addressing complex scientific inference problems. By leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, SBI can extract the most informative…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-17 Huifang Lyu , James Alvey , Noemi Anau Montel , Mauro Pieroni , Christoph Weniger

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Daolang Huang , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

Identifying the parameters of a non-linear model that best explain observed data is a core task across scientific fields. When such models rely on complex simulators, evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, making traditional…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables cosmological parameter estimation when closed-form likelihoods or models are unavailable. However, SBI relies on machine learning for neural compression and density estimation. This requires large…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-29 Alex A. Saoulis , Davide Piras , Niall Jeffrey , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Ana M. G. Ferreira , Benjamin Joachimi

Galaxy clusters are powerful probes of the growth of cosmic structure through measurements of their abundance as a function of mass and redshift. Extracting precise cosmological constraints from cluster surveys is challenging, as we must…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-25 Constantin Payerne , Calum Murray , Hugo Simon

Bayesian parameter inference for complex stochastic simulators is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. Existing simulation-based inference methods often require large number of simulations and become costly to use in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Vasilis Gkolemis , Christos Diou , Michael U. Gutmann

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Jonas Arruda , Niels Bracher , Ullrich Köthe , Jan Hasenauer , Stefan T. Radev

Computer simulations of photon transport through an absorbing and/or scattering medium form an important research tool in astrophysics. Nearly all software codes performing such simulations for three-dimensional geometries employ the Monte…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-07-25 Peter Camps , Maarten Baes

We discuss multivariate Monte Carlo methods appropriate for X-ray dispersive spectrometers. Dispersive spectrometers have many advantages for high resolution spectroscopy in the X-ray band. Analysis of data from these instruments is…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 J. R. Peterson , J. G. Jernigan , S. M. Kahn

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-17 Dan Crisan , Pierre Del Moral , Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra

Power spectrum estimation and evaluation of associated errors in the presence of incomplete sky coverage; non-homogeneous, correlated instrumental noise; and foreground emission is a problem of central importance for the extraction of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2016-08-30 J. Jewell , S. Levin , C. H. Anderson

Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of performing flexible, black-box, approximate Bayesian inference for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Patrick Cannon , Daniel Ward , Sebastian M. Schmon

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Ayman Boustati , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Theodoros Damoulas , Adam M. Johansen

Pixel-space full spectrum fitting exploiting non-linear $\chi^2$ minimization became a \emph{de facto} standard way of deriving internal kinematics from absorption line spectra of galaxies and star clusters. However, reliable estimation of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-04-29 Igor V. Chilingarian , Kirill A. Grishin

Scientists and engineers use simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. However, tuning the parameters of a simulator to ensure its outputs match observed data presents a significant challenge. Simulation-based inference (SBI)…

Monte Carlo computer simulations are virtually the only way to analyze the thermodynamic behavior of a system in a precise way. However, the various existing methods exhibit extreme differences in their efficiency, depending on model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-07-05 Michael Bachmann

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

Standard cosmological analysis, which relies on two-point statistics, fails to extract the full information of the data. This limits our ability to constrain with precision cosmological parameters. Thus, recent years have seen a paradigm…

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-05-15 A. A. Saoulis , D. Piras , A. Spurio Mancini , B. Joachimi , A. M. G. Ferreira

This work introduces two Monte Carlo (MC)-based sampling methods, known as line sampling and subset simulation, to improve the performance of standard MC analyses in the context of asteroid impact risk assessment. Both techniques sample the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-28 Matteo Romano , Matteo Losacco , Camilla Colombo , Pierluigi Di Lizia