Related papers: Beyond time-homogeneity for continuous-time multis…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…
We consider a discrete latent variable model for two-way data arrays, which allows one to simultaneously produce clusters along one of the data dimensions (e.g. exchangeable observational units or features) and contiguous groups, or…
We study nonlinear time-inhomogeneous Markov processes in the sense of McKean's seminal work [32]. These are given as families of laws $\mathbb{P}_{s,\zeta}$, $s\geq 0$, on path space, where $\zeta$ runs through a set of admissible initial…
Dynamic heterogeneity has often been modeled by assuming that a single-particle observable, fluctuating at a molecular scale, is influenced by its coupling to environmental variables fluctuating on a second, perhaps slower, time scale.…
Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…
Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…
We consider the problem of performing inference with imprecise continuous-time hidden Markov chains, that is, imprecise continuous-time Markov chains that are augmented with random output variables whose distribution depends on the hidden…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…
A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…
Discrete-time hidden Markov models are a broadly useful class of latent-variable models with applications in areas such as speech recognition, bioinformatics, and climate data analysis. It is common in practice to introduce temporal…
Point and interval estimation of future disability inception and recovery rates are predominantly carried out by combining generalized linear models (GLM) with time series forecasting techniques into a two-step method involving parameter…
Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…
In this article we focus on Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE) for the static parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs). We will consider the case where one cannot or does not want to compute the conditional likelihood density of the…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
In this paper, we derive (local) orthogonality graphs for the popular continuous-time state space models, including in particular multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) processes. In these (local) orthogonality graphs, vertices…
Understanding and predicting how complex systems respond to external perturbations is a central challenge in nonequilibrium statistical physics. Here we consider continuous-time Markov networks, which we subject to perturbations along a…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
Consider a stationary discrete random process with alphabet size d, which is assumed to be the output process of an unknown stationary Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Given the joint probabilities of finite length strings of the process, we are…
Time series and sequential data have gained significant attention recently since many real-world processes in various domains such as finance, education, biology, and engineering can be modeled as time series. Although many algorithms and…