Related papers: Logistic forecasting of GDP competitiveness
We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay…
We demonstrate the effectiveness of the logistic function to model the evolution of two economic systems. The first is the GDP and trade growth of the USA, and the second is the revenue and human resource growth of IBM. Our modelling is…
Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future economic development of nations can be predicted with a single "economic fitness" variable, which captures countries' competitiveness in international trade. The predictions…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on…
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of…
GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
Forecasting economic growth of India has been traditionally an uncertain exercise. The indicators and factors affecting economic structures and the variables required to model that captures the situation correctly is point of concern.…
An information entropy statistical methodology was used to evaluate the growth of the UK economy over the period 2000 to 2019, with an emphasis on the impact of labour productivity on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the average…
This paper presents an analysis of Green Gross Domestic Product (GGDP) using the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) model to evaluate its impact on global climate mitigation and economic health. GGDP is proposed as a…
This paper examines the fiscal and macroeconomic strategies essential for transition of India to a high income economy by 2047, aligning with the vision of Viksit Bharat. A sustainable annual GDP growth rate of 7 to 8 percent is projected…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the…
This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify…
COVID-19 has put a severe dent on the global economy and Indian Economy. International Monetary Fund has projected 1.9 percent for India. However, we believe that due to extended lockdown, the output in the first quarter is almost wiped…