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In this paper we address the challenges posed by non-proportional hazards and informative censoring, offering a path toward more meaningful causal inference conclusions. We start from the marginal structural Cox model, which has been widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-15 Jiyu Luo , Denise Rava , Jelena Bradic , Ronghui Xu

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

This paper considers the problem of inferring the causal effect of a variable $Z$ on a dependently censored survival time $T$. We allow for unobserved confounding variables, such that the error term of the regression model for $T$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-02 Gilles Crommen , Jad Beyhum , Ingrid Van Keilegom

It is common in medical studies that the outcome of interest is truncated by death, meaning that a subject has died before the outcome could be measured. In this case, restricted analysis among survivors may be subject to selection bias.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-25 Linbo Wang , Xiao-Hua Zhou , Thomas S. Richardson

In clinical trials, principal stratification analysis is commonly employed to address the issue of truncation by death, where a subject dies before the outcome can be measured. However, in practice, many survivor outcomes may remain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Wei Li , Yuan Liu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

In this paper, we predict conditional survival functions through a combined regression strategy. We take weak learners as different random survival trees. We propose to maximize concordance in the right-censored set up to find the optimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-12 Rahul Goswami , Arabin Kumar Dey

The use of massive survival data has become common in survival analysis. In this study, a subsampling algorithm is proposed for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates when the sample is extraordinarily large but…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-07 Nan Qiao , Wangcheng Li , Feng Xiao , Cunjie Lin , Yong Zhou

Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Robin Ristl , Heiko Götte , Armin Schüler , Martin Posch , Franz König

This paper introduces an assumption-lean method that constructs valid and efficient lower predictive bounds (LPBs) for survival times with censored data. We build on recent work by Cand\`es et al. (2021), whose approach first subsets the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Yu Gui , Rohan Hore , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Factorial analyses offer a powerful nonparametric means to detect main or interaction effects among multiple treatments. For survival outcomes, e.g. from clinical trials, such techniques can be adopted for comparing reasonable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Takeshi Emura , Marc Ditzhaus , Dennis Dobler , Kenta Murotani

Survival Analysis (SA) constitutes the default method for time-to-event modeling due to its ability to estimate event probabilities of sparsely occurring events over time. In this work, we show how to improve the training and inference of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Chris Solomou

We use statistical mechanics techniques, viz. the replica method, to model the effect of censoring on overfitting in Cox's proportional hazards model, the dominant regression method for time-to-event data. In the overfitting regime, Maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Emanuele Massa , Alexander Mozeika , Anthony Coolen

We consider a general proportional odds model for survival data under binary treatment, where the functional form of the covariates is left unspecified. We derive the efficient score for the conditional survival odds ratio given the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-16 Denise Rava , Jelena Bradic , Ronghui Xu

This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-12 Matteo Buttarazzi , Claudia Ceci

In some randomized clinical trials, patients may die before the measurements of their outcomes. Even though randomization generates comparable treatment and control groups, the remaining survivors often differ significantly in background…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-07 Fan Yang , Peng Ding

The analysis of causal effects when the outcome of interest is possibly truncated by death has a long history in statistics and causal inference. The survivor average causal effect is commonly identified with more assumptions than those…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-24 Jaffer M. Zaidi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Tyler J. VanderWeele

Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

Time-to-event prediction, e.g. cancer survival analysis or hospital length of stay, is a highly prominent machine learning task in medical and healthcare applications. However, only a few interpretable machine learning methods comply with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Hubert Baniecki , Bartlomiej Sobieski , Patryk Szatkowski , Przemyslaw Bombinski , Przemyslaw Biecek

Interval-censored data, in which the event time is only known to lie in some time interval, arise commonly in practice; for example, in a medical study in which patients visit clinics or hospitals at pre-scheduled times, and the events of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-21 Wei Fu , Jeffrey S. Simonoff