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This study explores the interdependent relationship between consumer credit and consumer confidence in the United States using monthly data from January 1978 to August 2024. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis…

General Economics · Economics 2025-05-29 Samiha Tariq , Weikang Zhang

We propose a novel bootstrap test of a dense model, namely factor regression, against a sparse plus dense alternative augmenting model with sparse idiosyncratic components. The asymptotic properties of the test are established under time…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-11 Jad Beyhum , Jonas Striaukas

We introduce a novel framework for individual-level welfare analysis. It builds on a parametric model for continuous demand with a quasilinear utility function, allowing for heterogeneous coefficients and unobserved individual-good-level…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-25 Junlong Feng , Sokbae Lee

Software analytics can be improved by surveying; i.e. rechecking and (possibly) revising the labels offered by prior analysis. Surveying is a time-consuming task and effective surveyors must carefully manage their time. Specifically, they…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2019-05-22 Fahmid M. Fahid , Zhe Yu , Tim Menzies

Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-13 Maha Bakoben , Tony Bellotti , Niall Adams

We design and implement lab experiments to evaluate the normative appeal of behavior arising from models of ambiguity-averse preferences. We report two main empirical findings. First, we demonstrate that behavior reflects an incomplete…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-07-26 Christoph Kuzmics , Brian W. Rogers , Xiannong Zhang

A new method based on the rejection sampling for finding statistical tests is proposed. This method is conceptually intuitive, easy to implement, and applicable for arbitrary dimension. To illustrate its potential applicability, three…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Markku Kuismin

We propose a decision-analytical approach to comparing the flexibility of decision situations from the perspective of a decision-maker who exhibits constant risk-aversion over a monetary value model. Our approach is simple yet seems to be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Ross D. Shachter , Marvin Mandelbaum

Context: Advances in technical debt research demonstrate the benefits of applying the financial debt metaphor to support decision-making in software development activities. Although decision-making during requirements engineering has…

The research described in this paper is motivated by model checking for parametric single-index models with diverging number of predictors. To construct a test statistic, we first study the asymptotic property of the estimators of involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-26 Falong Tan , Lixing Zhu

Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-04 Stefania Albanesi , Domonkos F. Vamossy

A decision maker starts from a judgmental decision and moves to the closest boundary of the confidence interval. This statistical decision rule is admissible and does not perform worse than the judgmental decision with a probability equal…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-19 Simone Manganelli

We investigate a framework for robo-advisors to estimate non-expert clients' risk aversion using adaptive binary-choice questionnaires. We model risk aversion using cost functions and spectral risk measures in a static setting. We prove the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-25 Ziteng Cheng , Anthony Coache , Sebastian Jaimungal

We provide a theoretical framework to understand how widely used measures of choice difficulty relate. In a binary-option Bayesian expected-utility framework, we show that three measures of difficulty, (i) understanding (ex-ante value),…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-30 Chris Chambers , Yusufcan Masatolioglu , Paulo Natenzon , Collin Raymond

The concept of technical debt has been explored from many perspectives but its precise estimation is still under heavy empirical and experimental inquiry. We aim to understand whether, by harnessing approximate, data-driven,…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2019-08-05 Valentina Lenarduzzi , Antonio Martini , Davide Taibi , Damian Andrew Tamburri

This study aims to explore the associations between individuals' trust dynamics in automated/autonomous technologies and their personal characteristics, and to further examine whether personal characteristics can be used to predict a user's…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Hyesun Chung , X. Jessie Yang

It is common to encounter the situation with uncertainty for decision makers (DMs) in dealing with a complex decision making problem. The existing evidence shows that people usually fear the extreme uncertainty named as the unknown. This…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-08-05 Fang Liu

We propose a robust hypothesis testing procedure for the predictability of multiple predictors that could be highly persistent. Our method improves the popular extended instrumental variable (IVX) testing (Phillips and Lee, 2013; Kostakis…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-03 Xiaosai Liao , Xinjue Li , Qingliang Fan

We propose a novel approach to infer investors' risk preferences from their portfolio choices, and then use the implied risk preferences to measure the efficiency of investment portfolios. We analyze a dataset spanning a period of six…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-28 Agostino Capponi , Zhaoyu Zhang

Preliminary research indicated that an increasing number of young adults end up in debt collection. Yet, debt collection agencies (DCAs) are still lacking knowledge on how to approach these consumers. A large-scale mixed-methods survey of…

General Economics · Economics 2023-03-10 Minou Goetze , Christina Herdt , Ricarda Conrad , Stephan Stricker