Related papers: Context-tree weighting and Bayesian Context Trees:…

Based on decision trees, many fields have arguably made tremendous progress in recent years. In simple words, decision trees use the strategy of "divide-and-conquer" to divide the complex problem on the dependency between input features and…

We derive ensembles of decision trees through a nonparametric Bayesian model, allowing us to view random forests as samples from a posterior distribution. This insight provides large gains in interpretability, and motivates a class of…

Binary trait data record the presence or absence of distinguishing traits in individuals. We treat the problem of estimating ancestral trees with time depth from binary trait data. Simple analysis of such data is problematic. Each homology…

Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups. Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new hierarchical data…

The Classification Tree (CT) is one of the most common models in interpretable machine learning. Although such models are usually built with greedy strategies, in recent years, thanks to remarkable advances in Mixer-Integer Programming…

Entropic tilting (ET) is a Bayesian decision-analytic method for constraining distributions to satisfy defined targets or bounds for sets of expectations. This report recapitulates the foundations and basic theory of ET for conditioning…

This paper introduces the Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF), a novel non-parametric model addressing key challenges in DiD estimation, such as staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. DiD-BCF provides…

Decision trees remain one of the most popular machine learning models today, largely due to their out-of-the-box performance and interpretability. In this work, we present a Bayesian approach to decision tree induction via maximum a…

Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, and Bayesian CART. Two potential…

The recursive and hierarchical structure of full rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. In most of these cases, the full rooted tree is…

Traditionally, phylogeny and sequence alignment are estimated separately: first estimate a multiple sequence alignment and then infer a phylogeny based on the sequence alignment estimated in the previous step. However, uncertainty in the…

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

This paper proposes Bayesian Adaptive Trials (BAT) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for evaluation social policy interventions, addressing limitations inherent in traditional methods such as Randomized…

Probability trees are one of the simplest models of causal generative processes. They possess clean semantics and -- unlike causal Bayesian networks -- they can represent context-specific causal dependencies, which are necessary for e.g.…

This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian…

Focusing on Random Forests, we propose a multi-armed contextual bandit recommendation framework for feature-based selection of a single shallow tree of the learned ensemble. The trained system, which works on top of the Random Forest,…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods rely on asymptotic arguments, implying that parameter inference can be systematically biased even when sufficient statistics are available. We propose to construct the ABC accept/reject step…

Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the…

Credible intervals and credible sets, such as highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, form an integral statistical tool in Bayesian phylogenetics, both for phylogenetic analyses and for development. Readily available for continuous…