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Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

Bayes' Theorem confers inherent limitations on the accuracy of screening tests as a function of disease prevalence. We have shown in previous work that a testing system can tolerate significant drops in prevalence, up until a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-01 Jacques Balayla

We provide a brief overview of both Bayes and classical model selection. We argue tentatively that model selection has at least two major goals, that of finding the correct model or predicting well, and that in general both these goals may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-05 Ritabrata Dutta , Malgortaza Bogdan , Jayanta K. Ghosh

Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-30 Marcelo J. Moreira , Rafael Mourao

The choice of priors may become an insoluble problem if priors and Bayes' rule are not seen and accepted in the framework of subjectivism. Therefore, the meaning and the role of subjectivity in science is considered and defended from the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini

A problem of a new physical model test given observed experimental data is a typical one for modern experiments of high energy physics (HEP). A solution of the problem may be provided with two alternative statistical formalisms, namely…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-03-08 Andrey Kamenshchikov

I review the problem of the choice of the priors from the point of view of a physicist interested in measuring a physical quantity, and I try to show that the reference priors often recommended for the purpose (Jeffreys priors) do not fit…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini

We have developed a frequentist approach for model selection which determines the consistency between any cosmological model and the data using the distribution of likelihoods from the iterative smoothing method. Using this approach, we…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-03-30 Hanwool Koo , Ryan E. Keeley , Arman Shafieloo , Benjamin L'Huillier

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Jan Kalina

We introduce equivalence testing procedures for linear regression analyses. Such tests can be very useful for confirming the lack of a meaningful association between a continuous outcome and a continuous or binary predictor. Specifically,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-17 Harlan Campbell

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

Bayesian inference for rank-order problems is frustrated by the absence of an explicit likelihood function. This hurdle can be overcome by assuming a latent normal representation that is consistent with the ordinal information in the data:…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-20 Johnny van Doorn , Alexander Ly , Maarten Marsman , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Don Fraser has given an interesting account of the agreements and disagreements between Bayesian posterior probabilities and confidence levels. In this comment I discuss some cases where the lack of such agreement is extreme. I then discuss…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-06 Larry Wasserman

We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-21 Blakeley B. McShane , David Gal , Andrew Gelman , Christian Robert , Jennifer L. Tackett

We show that the so-called quantum probabilistic rule, usually presented in the physical literature as an argument of the essential distinction between the probability relations under quantum and classical measurements, is not, as it is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-11-19 Andrei Khrennikov , Elena Loubenets

To make precise the sense in which nature fails to respect classical physics, one requires a formal notion of classicality. Ideally, such a notion should be defined operationally, so that it can be subjected to a direct experimental test,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-06-21 Michael D. Mazurek , Matthew F. Pusey , Ravi Kunjwal , Kevin J. Resch , Robert W. Spekkens

The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses was presented by Pereira and Stern [Entropy 1(4) (1999) 99-110] as a Bayesian alternative instead of the traditional significance test using p-value. The FBST is based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-12 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Victor Fossaluza

Various effects in human cognition, often considered `non-classical', have been argued to be most naturally modelled by quantum-like models of decision making. We extend this approach to describe models of cognition and decision-making in…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-13 Sean Tull , Masanao Ozawa

P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis testing theory. As a consequence, significant results are much more common than they are supposed to be when the null hypothesis is in fact true. In this paper, we build…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-09 Adam McCloskey , Pascal Michaillat

The classical theory for the meta-analysis of $p$-values is based on the assumption that if the overall null hypothesis is true, then all $p$-values used in a chosen combined test statistic are genuine, i.e., are observations from…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-08 Rui Santos , M. Fátima Brilhante , Sandra Mendonça