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Related papers: Bayesian Causal Forests & the 2022 ACIC Data Chall…

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Understanding and inferencing Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) are vital for developing personalized treatment recommendations. Many state-of-the-art approaches achieve inspiring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Chan Hsu , Jun-Ting Wu , Yihuang Kang

We introduce canonical correlation forests (CCFs), a new decision tree ensemble method for classification and regression. Individual canonical correlation trees are binary decision trees with hyperplane splits based on local canonical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-10 Tom Rainforth , Frank Wood

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Tailoring treatment assignment to specific individuals can improve the health outcomes, but a single study may offer inadequate information for this purpose. The ability to leverage information from an auxiliary data source deemed to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-05 Ashwini Venkatasubramaniam , Julian Wolfson

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

High-dimensional data can be useful for causal inference by providing many confounders that may bolster the plausibility of the ignorability assumption. Propensity score methods are powerful tools for causal inference, are popular in health…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-10 Jacob Spertus , Sharon-Lise Normand

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Arman Oganisian

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Emil Javurek , Dennis Frauen , Yuxin Wang , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

Estimating varying treatment effects in randomized trials with noncompliance is inherently challenging since variation comes from two separate sources: variation in the impact itself and variation in the compliance rate. In this setting,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-28 Jared D. Fisher , David W. Puelz , Sameer K. Deshpande

This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian…

Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi , Ali Baheri , Nasibeh Azadeh-Fard

Causal inference has gained much popularity in recent years, with interests ranging from academic, to industrial, to educational, and all in between. Concurrently, the study and usage of neural networks has also grown profoundly (albeit at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-07 Demetrios Papakostas , Andrew Herren , P. Richard Hahn , Francisco Castillo

Uplift modeling is a rapidly growing approach that utilizes causal inference and machine learning methods to directly estimate the heterogeneous treatment effects, which has been widely applied to various online marketplaces to assist…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-27 Shu Wan , Chen Zheng , Zhonggen Sun , Mengfan Xu , Xiaoqing Yang , Hongtu Zhu , Jiecheng Guo

The inclusion of the propensity score as a covariate in Bayesian regression trees for causal inference can reduce the bias in treatment effect estimations, which occurs due to the regularization-induced confounding phenomenon. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-30 Pedro Henrique Filipini dos Santos , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

With the increasing flexibilization of processes, determining robust scheduling decisions has become an important goal. Traditionally, the flexibility index has been used to identify safe operating schedules by approximating the admissible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Moritz Wedemeyer , Eike Cramer , Alexander Mitsos , Manuel Dahmen

We derive ensembles of decision trees through a nonparametric Bayesian model, allowing us to view random forests as samples from a posterior distribution. This insight provides large gains in interpretability, and motivates a class of…

Applications · Statistics 2015-05-19 Matt Taddy , Chun-Sheng Chen , Jun Yu , Mitch Wyle

The imminent need to interpret the output of a Machine Learning model with counterfactual (CF) explanations - via small perturbations to the input - has been notable in the research community. Although the variety of CF examples is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Kleopatra Markou , Dimitrios Tomaras , Vana Kalogeraki , Dimitrios Gunopulos

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Brady T. West , Michael R. Elliott