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This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

Finding the features relevant to the difference in treatment effects is essential to unveil the underlying causal mechanisms. Existing methods seek such features by measuring how greatly the feature attributes affect the degree of the {\it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Yoichi Chikahara , Makoto Yamada , Hisashi Kashima

There is growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. We describe a number of meta-algorithms that can take advantage of any supervised learning or regression method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Sören R. Künzel , Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Peter J. Bickel , Bin Yu

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Automated decision-making (ADM) systems are being deployed across a diverse range of critical problem areas such as social welfare and healthcare. Recent work highlights the importance of causal ML models in ADM systems, but implementing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Unai Fischer-Abaigar , Christoph Kern , Frauke Kreuter

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is critical in medical research. It provides insights into how treatment effects vary among individuals, which can provide statistical evidence for precision medicine. While most existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

The credibility revolution advances the use of research designs that permit identification and estimation of causal effects. However, understanding which mechanisms produce measured causal effects remains a challenge. The dominant current…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-08 Jiawei Fu , Tara Slough

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Ruichu Cai , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Shu Wan , Chen Zheng , Xiaoqing Yang , Jiecheng Guo

We study the assessment of the accuracy of heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, where the HTE is not directly observable so standard computation of prediction errors is not applicable. To tackle the difficulty, we propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Causal effect estimation (CEE) provides a crucial tool for predicting the unobserved counterfactual outcome for an entity. As CEE relaxes the requirement for ``perfect'' counterfactual samples (e.g., patients with identical attributes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Hechuan Wen , Tong Chen , Guanhua Ye , Li Kheng Chai , Shazia Sadiq , Hongzhi Yin

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

Surrogate markers are often employed in clinical trials to replace primary outcomes that may be difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. These markers can accelerate the evaluation of new treatments, provided they…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Pietro Carlotti , Layla Parast

We consider estimation of the target population average treatment effect (TATE) when outcome information is unavailable. Instead, we observe the outcome in multiple source populations and wish to combine the treatment effects therein to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Zehao Su , Helene Charlotte Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-04 Dovid Parnas , Mathieu Even , Julie Josse , Uri Shalit
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