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Counterfactual explanations have been argued to be one of the most intuitive forms of explanation. They are typically defined as a minimal set of edits on a given data sample that, when applied, changes the output of a model on that sample.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Edmund Dervakos , Konstantinos Thomas , Giorgos Filandrianos , Giorgos Stamou

Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Amanda Coston , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Explainable Artificial Intelligence and Formal Argumentation have received significant attention in recent years. Argumentation-based systems often lack explainability while supporting decision-making processes. Counterfactual and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Gianvincenzo Alfano , Sergio Greco , Francesco Parisi , Irina Trubitsyna

Causal reasoning is essential for understanding decision-making about the behaviour of complex `ecosystems' of systems that underpin modern society, with security -- including issues around correctness, safety, resilience, etc. -- typically…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Pinaki Chakraborty , Tristan Caulfield , David Pym

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

Explaining autonomous and intelligent systems is critical in order to improve trust in their decisions. Counterfactuals have emerged as one of the most compelling forms of explanation. They address ``why not'' questions by revealing how…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Leila Amgoud , Martin Cooper

As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Martin Pawelczyk , Chirag Agarwal , Shalmali Joshi , Sohini Upadhyay , Himabindu Lakkaraju

I generalize acyclic deterministic structural causal models to the nondeterministic case and argue that this offers an improved semantics for counterfactuals. The standard, deterministic, semantics developed by Halpern (and based on the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Sander Beckers

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Recent work on counterfactual visual explanations has contributed to making artificial intelligence models more explainable by providing visual perturbation to flip the prediction. However, these approaches neglect the causal relationships…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Yiran Qiao , Disheng Liu , Yiren Lu , Yu Yin , Mengnan Du , Jing Ma

Decision making under abnormal conditions is a critical process that involves evaluating the current state and determining the optimal action to restore the system to a normal state at an acceptable cost. However, in such scenarios,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Ruichu Cai , Xi Chen , Jie Qiao , Zijian Li , Yuequn Liu , Wei Chen , Keli Zhang , Jiale Zheng

Counterfactuals have become an important area of interdisciplinary interest, especially in logic, philosophy of language, epistemology, metaphysics, psychology, decision theory, and even artificial intelligence. In this study, we propose a…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2022-11-15 Nicholas Kluge Corrêa , Nythamar Fernandes De Oliveira

Data based judgments go into artificial intelligence applications but they undergo paradoxical reversal when seemingly unnecessary additional data is provided. Examples of this are Simpson's reversal and the disjunction effect where the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-14 Subhash Kak

In this work we propose a different surgical modified model for the construction of counterfactual variables under non parametric structural equation models. This approach allows the simultaneous representation of counterfactual responses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Julieta Molina , Lucio Pantazis , Mariela Sued

Counterfactual reasoning and contextuality is defined and critically evaluated with regard to its nonempirical content. To this end, a uniqueness property of states, explosion views and link observables are introduced. If only a single…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Karl Svozil

Automated planning traditionally assumes that all aspects of a planning task (initial state, goals, and available actions) are fully specified in advance, an approach well-suited to domains with fixed rules and deterministic execution.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Alberto Pozanco , Daniel Borrajo , Manuela Veloso

Interpretability research takes counterfactual theories of causality for granted. Most causal methods rely on counterfactual interventions to inputs or the activations of particular model components, followed by observations of the change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Aaron Mueller

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Martin Pawelczyk , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci
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