Related papers: Rating Triggers for Collateral-Inclusive XVA via M…

In this paper, we model the rating process of an entity as a piecewise homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. We focus specifically on calibrating the model to both historical data (rating transition matrices) and market data (CDS…

In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology to model rating transitions with a stochastic process. To introduce stochastic processes, whose values are valid rating matrices, we noticed the geometric properties of stochastic matrices and…

In this paper we discuss the issue of computation of the bilateral credit valuation adjustment (CVA) under rating triggers, and in presence of ratings-linked margin agreements. Specifically, we consider collateralized OTC contracts, that…

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent…

In recent years, skeleton-based action recognition has become a popular 3D classification problem. State-of-the-art methods typically first represent each motion sequence as a high-dimensional trajectory on a Lie group with an additional…

Corporate credit ratings issued by third-party rating agencies are quantified assessments of a company's creditworthiness. Credit Ratings highly correlate to the likelihood of a company defaulting on its debt obligations. These ratings play…

A new challenge to quantitative finance after the recent financial crisis is the study of credit valuation adjustment (CVA), which requires modeling of the future values of a portfolio. In this paper, following recent work in [Weinan…

We analyse the effectiveness of modern deep learning techniques in predicting credit ratings over a universe of thousands of global corporate entities obligations when compared to most popular, traditional machine-learning approaches such…

We present a novel deep learning method for estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov processes through discrete sampling. Departing from conventional machine learning, our approach reframes parameter approximation as an optimization…

In this work, we explore modeling change points in time-series data using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs). We propose a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder (VAE)…

We present a methodology for model evaluation and selection where the sampling mechanism violates the i.i.d. assumption. Our methodology involves a formulation of the bias between the standard Cross-Validation (CV) estimator and the mean…

This paper examines two different yet related questions related to explainable AI (XAI) practices. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly important in financial services, such as pre-approval, credit underwriting, investments, and various…

In applied statistics and machine learning, the "gold standards" used for training are often biased and almost always noisy. Dawid and Skene's justifiably popular crowdsourcing model adjusts for rater (coder, annotator) sensitivity and…

Paradoxically, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) could be pushed in two opposite directions, utilizing powerful decoder model for generating realistic images but collapsing the learned representation, or increasing regularization coefficient…

The development of computing has made credit scoring approaches possible, with various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques becoming more and more valuable. While complex models yield more accurate predictions, their…

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…

By composing graphical models with deep learning architectures, we learn generative models with the strengths of both frameworks. The structured variational autoencoder (SVAE) inherits structure and interpretability from graphical models,…

Machine learning models have become firmly established across all scientific fields. Extracting features from data and making inferences based on them with neural network models often yields high accuracy; however, this approach has several…

Motivated by the equations of cross valuation adjustments (XVAs) in the realistic case where capital is deemed fungible as a source of funding for variation margin, we introduce a simulation/regression scheme for a class of anticipated…

Before the 2008 financial crisis, most research in financial mathematics focused on pricing options without considering the effects of counterparties' defaults, illiquidity problems, and the role of the sale and repurchase agreement (Repo)…