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We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
We consider one-step methods for integrating stochastic differential equations and prove pathwise convergence using ideas from rough path theory. In contrast to alternative theories of pathwise convergence, no knowledge is required of…
Simultaneous load forecasting across multiple entities (e.g., regions, buildings) is crucial for the efficient, reliable, and cost-effective operation of power systems. Accurate load forecasting is a challenging problem due to the inherent…
The problem of designing adaptive stepsize sequences for the gradient descent method applied to convex and locally smooth functions is studied. We take an adaptive control perspective and design update rules for the stepsize that make use…
Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have…
We propose a model of random walks on weighted graphs where the weights are interval valued, and connect it to reversible imprecise Markov chains. While the theory of imprecise Markov chains is now well established, this is a first attempt…
Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…
One-dimensional run-and-tumble processes may converge towards some localized non-equilibrium steady state when the two velocities and/or the two switching rates are space-dependent. A long dynamical trajectory can be then analyzed via the…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
Dynamics of information flow in adaptively interacting stochastic processes is studied. We give an extended form of game dynamics for Markovian processes and study its behavior to observe information flow through the system. Examples of the…
Stochastic gradient methods are among the most widely used algorithms for large-scale optimization and machine learning. A key technique for improving the statistical efficiency and stability of these methods is the use of averaging schemes…
In stochastic systems, numerically sampling the relevant trajectories for the estimation of the large deviation statistics of time-extensive observables requires overcoming their exponential (in space and time) scarcity. The optimal way to…
DC networks play an important role within the ongoing energy transition. In this context, simulations of designed and existing networks and their corresponding assets are a core tool to get insights and form a support to decision-making.…
We study using large deviation theory the fluctuations of time-integrated functionals or observables of the unbiased random walk evolving on Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graphs, and construct a modified, biased random walk that explains how these…
In this paper, the large deviations on trajectory level for ergodic Markov processes are studied. These processes take values in the non-negative quadrant of the two dimension lattice and are concentrated on step-wise functions. The rates…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…
Recently, a class of stochastic processes known as piecewise deterministic Markov processes has been used to define continuous-time Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with a number of attractive properties, including compatibility with…
We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…
Existing studies on the degree correlation of evolving networks typically rely on differential equations and statistical analysis, resulting in only approximate solutions due to inherent randomness. To address this limitation, we propose an…