Related papers: Ensemble transport smoothing. Part II: Nonlinear u…
Smoothing algorithms for state-space models, i.e., fixed-interval smoothing, fixed-lag smoothing, and two-filter formula for smoothing, are examined using real examples. For linear and Gaussian state-space models, it is observed that…
This paper proposes a new stochastic model of traffic dynamics in Lagrangian coordinates. The source of uncertainty is heterogeneity in driving behavior, captured using driver-specific speed-spacing relations, i.e., parametric uncertainty.…
Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used in many areas, including tracking and navigation, medical applications, and financial trend filtering. One of the basic assumptions required to apply the Kalman smoothing framework is that…
We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…
We employ the variational formulation and the Euler-Lagrange equations to study the steady-state error in linear non-causal estimators (smoothers). We give a complete description of the steady-state error for inputs that are polynomial in…
This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…
In the context of state-space models, skeleton-based smoothing algorithms rely on a backward sampling step which by default has a $\mathcal O(N^2)$ complexity (where $N$ is the number of particles). Existing improvements in the literature…
In this paper, we propose a new framework for solving state estimation problems with an additional sparsity-promoting $L_1$-regularizer term. We first formulate such problems as minimization of the sum of linear or nonlinear quadratic error…
In data assimilation, an ensemble provides a way to propagate the probability density of a system described by a nonlinear prediction model. Although a large ensemble size is required for statistical accuracy, the ensemble size is typically…
Smoothing in state-space models amounts to computing the conditional distribution of the latent state trajectory, given observations, or expectations of functionals of the state trajectory with respect to this distributions. For models that…
This paper constructs an ensemble-based sampling smoother for four-dimensional data assimilation using a Hybrid/Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo approach. The smoother samples efficiently from the posterior probability density of the solution at the…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
Dynamic inference problems in autoregressive (AR/ARMA/ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and navigation are often formulated and solved using state-space models (SSM), which allow a range of statistical distributions to inform innovations and…
Neural network ensembles, such as Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), have shown success in the areas of uncertainty estimation and robustness. However, a crucial challenge prohibits their use in practice. BNNs require a large number of…
Data assimilation combines dynamical models with observations to improve state estimates. Ensemble filters sequentially assimilate observations by updating a set of samples over time, alternating between a forecast and an analysis step.…
In this paper we investigate the problem of controlling a partially observed stochastic dynamical system such that its state is difficult to infer using a (fixed-interval) Bayesian smoother. This problem arises naturally in applications in…
We study the filtering and smoothing problem for continuous-time linear Gaussian systems. While classical approaches such as the Kalman-Bucy filter and the Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother provide recursive formulas for the conditional…
Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skewed and heavy-tailed measurement noise are presented. The algorithms use a variational Bayes approximation of the posterior distribution of models that…
In this paper, we use the optimization formulation of nonlinear Kalman filtering and smoothing problems to develop second-order variants of iterated Kalman smoother (IKS) methods. We show that Newton's method corresponds to a recursion over…
This paper considers the problem of iterative Bayesian smoothing in nonlinear state-space models with additive noise using Gaussian approximations. Iterative methods are known to improve smoothed estimates but are not guaranteed to…