Related papers: Confidence-Nets: A Step Towards better Prediction …
While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where…
Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNN) have enjoyed great successes in many signal processing applications because they can learn complex, non-linear causal relationships from input to output. In this light, DCNNs are well suited for the…
There is significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware neural networks (NNs), based on learning…
Prior Networks are a recently developed class of models which yield interpretable measures of uncertainty and have been shown to outperform state-of-the-art ensemble approaches on a range of tasks. They can also be used to distill an…
Time series forecasting is critical for many applications, where deep learning-based point prediction models have demonstrated strong performance. However, in practical scenarios, there is also a need to quantify predictive uncertainty…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have enabled astounding progress in several vision-based problems. Despite showing high predictive accuracy, recently, several works have revealed that they tend to provide overconfident predictions and thus are…
We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to…
Ensembling a neural network is a widely recognized approach to enhance model performance, estimate uncertainty, and improve robustness in deep supervised learning. However, deep ensembles often come with high computational costs and memory…
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have revolutionized computer vision. We now have DNNs that achieve top (performance) results in many problems, including object recognition, facial expression analysis, and semantic segmentation, to name but a…
Modern software systems rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) when processing complex, unstructured inputs, such as images, videos, natural language texts or audio signals. Provided the intractably large size of such input spaces, the…
This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…
We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are more suitable for learning non-linear dependencies in dynamical systems from observed time series data. In practice all the external variables driving such systems are not known a priori, especially in…
With the rise of machine learning, inference on deep neural networks (DNNs) has become a core building block on the critical path for many cloud applications. Applications today rely on isolated ad-hoc deployments that force users to…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…
Diffusion models have become the go-to method for many generative tasks, particularly for image-to-image generation tasks such as super-resolution and inpainting. Current diffusion-based methods do not provide statistical guarantees…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…
On complex problems, state of the art prediction accuracy of Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can be achieved using very large-scale models, consisting of billions of parameters. Such models can only be run on dedicated servers, typically…
Motivated by the gap between theoretical optimal approximation rates of deep neural networks (DNNs) and the accuracy realized in practice, we seek to improve the training of DNNs. The adoption of an adaptive basis viewpoint of DNNs leads to…