Related papers: Statistical properties for mixing Markov chains wi…
We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…
The Semi-Markov property of Continuous Time Random Walks (CTRWs) and their limit processes is utilized, and the probability distributions of the bivariate Markov process $(X(t),V(t))$ are calculated: $X(t)$ is a CTRW limit and $V(t)$ a…
Conditions on the generator of a Markov process to control the fluctuations of its bridges are found. In particular, continuous time random walks on graphs and gradient diffusions are considered. Under these conditions, a concentration of…
Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…
This article presents several results establishing connections be- tween Markov chains and dynamical systems, from the point of view of open systems in physics. We show how all Markov chains can be understood as the information on one…
We consider a continuous time Markov chain on a countable state space and prove a joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and the empirical flow, which accounts for the total number of jumps between pairs of states. We…
We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…
We study Markov multi-maps of the interval from the point of view of topological dynamics. Specifically, we investigate whether they have various properties, including topological transitivity, topological mixing, dense periodic points, and…
We study safe, data-driven control of (Markov) jump linear systems with unknown transition probabilities, where both the discrete mode and the continuous state are to be inferred from output measurements. To this end, we develop a receding…
Markov cohort state-transition models have been the standard approach for simulating the prognosis of patients or, more generally, the life trajectories of individuals over a time period. Current approaches for estimating the variance of a…
This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…
High-dimensional dynamical systems projected onto a reduced-order model cease to be deterministic and are best described by probability distributions in state space. Their equations of motion map onto an evolution operator with a…
In this paper, we investigate a nonparametric approach to provide a recursive estimator of the transition density of a non-stationary piecewise-deterministic Markov process, from only one observation of the path within a long time. In this…
We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power…
Dynamical systems are often subject to forcing or changes in their governing parameters and it is of interest to study how this affects their statistical properties. A prominent real-life example of this class of problems is the…
We consider the down/up crossing property of weighted Markov branching processes. The joint probability distribution of multi crossing numbers of such processes are obtained. In particular, for Markov branching processes, the probability…
Simulated tempering is a widely used strategy for sampling from multimodal distributions. In this paper, we consider simulated tempering combined with an arbitrary local Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and present a new decomposition…
We develop a practical approach to establish the stability, that is, the recurrence in a given set, of a large class of controlled Markov chains. These processes arise in various areas of applied science and encompass important numerical…
This paper establishes limit theorems for a class of stochastic hybrid systems (continuous deterministic dynamic coupled with jump Markov processes) in the fluid limit (small jumps at high frequency), thus extending known results for jump…
A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions.…