Related papers: Formalizing Statistical Causality via Modal Logic
This paper proposes new formulas for the probabilities of causation difined by Pearl (2000). Tian and Pearl (2000a, 2000b) showed how to bound the quantities of the probabilities of causation from experimental and observational data, under…
A probabilistic expert system emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert through a directional graphical model. The first step in building such systems is to understand data generation mechanism. To this end, one may try to…
We give a category-theoretic treatment of causal models that formalizes the syntax for causal reasoning over a directed acyclic graph (DAG) by associating a free Markov category with the DAG in a canonical way. This framework enables us to…
Explainability plays an increasingly important role in machine learning. Furthermore, humans view the world through a causal lens and thus prefer causal explanations over associational ones. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a causal…
Characterising causal structure is an activity that is ubiquitous across the sciences. Causal models are representational devices that can be used as oracles for future interventions, to predict how values of some variables will change in…
We present a domain-specific embedded language (DSEL) in Haskell that supports the philosophical study and practical explanation of causation. The language provides constructs for modeling situations comprised of events and functions for…
Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously,…
Discussions on causal relations in real life often consider variables for which the definition of causality is unclear since the notion of interventions on the respective variables is obscure. Asking 'what qualifies an action for being an…
The analysis of the causality is important in many fields of research. I propose a causal theory to obtain the causal effects in a causal loglinear model. It calculates them using the odds ratio and Pearl's causal theory. The effects are…
LLM-based social simulations can generate believable community interactions, enabling ``policy wind tunnels'' where governance interventions are tested before deployment. But believability is not causality. Claims like ``intervention $A$…
This paper presents a sound and completecalculus for causal relevance, based onPearl's functional models semantics.The calculus consists of axioms and rulesof inference for reasoning about causalrelevance relationships.We extend the set of…
Bayesian probabilistic programming languages (BPPLs) let users denote statistical models as code while the interpreter infers the posterior distribution. The semantics of BPPLs are usually mathematically complex and unable to reason about…
The aim of illocutionary logic is to explain how context can affect the meaning of certain special kinds of performative utterances. Recall that performative utterances are understood as follows: a speaker performs the illocutionary act…
Rigorous evaluation of the causal effects of semantic features on language model predictions can be hard to achieve for natural language reasoning problems. However, this is such a desirable form of analysis from both an interpretability…
Causality is one of the fundamental structures of spacetimes, determining the possible behaviour and propagation of physical information. Causal structure can be analysed through the various modal logics it induces. The modal logics for the…
There is growing interest in the study of causal methods in the Earth sciences. However, most applications have focused on causal discovery, i.e. inferring the causal relationships and causal structure from data. This paper instead examines…
The Causal Roadmap outlines a systematic approach to asking and answering questions of cause-and-effect: define the quantity of interest, evaluate needed assumptions, conduct statistical estimation, and carefully interpret results. To…
Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…
Structural Causal Explanations (SCEs) can be used to automatically generate explanations in natural language to questions about given data that are grounded in a (possibly learned) causal model. Unfortunately they work for small data only.…
Causality is a non-obvious concept that is often considered to be related to temporality. In this paper we present a number of past and present approaches to the definition of temporality and causality from philosophical, physical, and…