Related papers: Ice Core Dating using Probabilistic Programming
Ice cores provide insight into the past climate over many millennia. Due to ice compaction, the raw data for any single core are irregular in time. Multiple cores have different irregularities; jointly these series are misaligned. After…
Polar ice cores play a central role in studies of the earth's climate system through natural archives. A pressing issue is the analysis of the oldest, highly thinned ice core sections, where the identification of paleoclimate signals is…
In this paper, we present a semiparametric model for describing the effect of temperature on Antarctic ice accumulation on a paleoclimatic time scale. The model is motivated by sharp ups and downs in the rate of ice accumulation apparent…
We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…
Ground-penetrating radar on planes and satellites now makes it practical to collect 3D observations of the subsurface structure of the polar ice sheets, providing crucial data for understanding and tracking global climate change. But…
Stellar ages are critical building blocks of evolutionary models, but challenging to measure for low mass main sequence stars. An unexplored solution in this regime is the application of probabilistic machine learning methods to…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
Snow density estimates below the surface, used with airplane-acquired ice-penetrating radar measurements, give a site-specific history of snow water accumulation. Because it is infeasible to drill snow cores across all of Antarctica to…
It is not common to consider the role of uncertainties in the rate coefficients used in interstellar gas-phase chemical models. In this paper, we report a new method to determine both the uncertainties in calculated molecular abundances and…
The weather phenomenon of frost poses great threats to agriculture. As recent frost prediction methods are based on on-site historical data and sensors, extra development and deployment time are required for data collection in any new site.…
Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…
A major goal in paleoclimate science is to reconstruct historical climates using proxies for climate variables such as those observed in sediment cores, and in the process learn about climate dynamics. This is hampered by uncertainties in…
Understanding the structure of Earth's polar ice sheets is important for modeling how global warming will impact polar ice and, in turn, the Earth's climate. Ground-penetrating radar is able to collect observations of the internal structure…
Geologic cores are rock samples that are extracted from deep under the ground during the well drilling process. They are used for petroleum reservoirs' performance characterization. Traditionally, physical studies of cores are carried out…
Context: Astronomy and astrophysics demand rigorous handling of uncertainties to ensure the credibility of outcomes. The growing integration of artificial intelligence offers a novel avenue to address this necessity. This convergence…
Polar codes can theoretically achieve very competitive Frame Error Rates. In practice, their performance may depend on the chosen decoding procedure, as well as other parameters of the communication system they are deployed upon. As a…
The construction of all age indicators consists of certain basic steps which lead to the identification of the properties desirable for stellar age indicators. Prior age indicators for main sequence field stars possess only some of these…
Climate exhibits a vast range of dissipative structures. Some have characteristic times of a few days; others evolve on thousands of years. All these structures are interdependent; in other words, they communicate. It is often considered…